Good Judgement Project

[SloggingScotsman]

Anyone else here doing this?

I have been waiting for today to let a little experiment time out before I get stuck back in, and am curious to know if others have had similar experiences to me.

A year and a half ago when this opened up to the public from the black vault of the American intelligence agencies (and the Superforcasting book was published, which I noticed in The Economist), I decided to give it a go, and have done ok. For those who don't know it's a maths based prediction scorer. The original aim, iirc was to find Americas top global event predictors in the population and the results showed, again iirc, that housewives etc can do better than intelligence agents!

Now this is significant as the way I went around doing this is not that far from how I tackle remote viewing.

Anyhow I decided to try ten Predictions, which I know is a small sample, but I wanted some feedback from the project before I dived in, and it can take a year and a half for questions to resolve.

In essence I split my sample into two. The first I followed the projects protocols, basically revising my prediction as new information comes to light, while the other half I made an initial prediction and by the seat of my pants left it.

My conclusion is that the projects protocols do generally work. By revising Predictions you do make better Predictions. However this is based on a small sample, which is skewed by one of my ten Predictions being worse than a guess and worse than the median prediction. In every other case I beat the average by a fair margin mathematically.

Now the final prediction is currently in the nomans land of being computed, and it will worsen my score a little (Back in Oct 2015, I made the prediction that there was a 10% chance of Bashar al-Assad ceasing to be president by today).

However there is still the lingering question of Trump, which was not part of my Predictions here. Way before anyone else thought it possible he could become president I was making a tit of myself at Oxford University confidenly predicting his win. Yet about a month before the vote I decided to follow the good judgement projects protocols and waivered, declaring that I didn't know at that point in time (which was true) and would have gone the other way if I were voting due I guess to the belief of the press. So this tells me that I can't trust the good judgements protocols completely. Relying on my gut can be accurate.

As you know throughout my life I have made predictions that people, including a manager in Price Waterhouse, and separately a human resource manager at a multinational, laughed in my face about, but time has proven me accurate time and time again.

As you might imagine I am now looking to find ways of distilling this to capitalise on it, something that I have failed to do throughout my life. But with the good judgement project providing independent mathematical evidence, it has motivated me to work through those who laugh, then later "knew it all along".

But I am very conscious that ten Predictions proves nothing. Hence I was wondering if anyone else here is doing this project and are prepared to offer any insights from their own experience with it?

For those unfamiliar with the project, a brier score of 0.5 equates to chance, the lower the better, a superforcecaster is around iirc 0.2. My predictions have come in at:

0.000
0.001
0.005
0.020
0.060
0.064
0.073
0.115
0.500
0.583
Now updated fro all ten Predictions.
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Good Judgement Project Brier Score 0.142 (median 0.367) https://www.gjopen.com/
Read: Our Place in the Twenty First Century

[Tony Stark]

Isn't this like saying that if I could place my bets when the horses were half way round the Grand National then I would have a better chance of picking the winner?

[SloggingScotsman]

[explorerJC]

you are still a sucker for a name, Sloggers...first it was a couple of Tories, then it was your lodge....recently it has been the US and the economist...

The Economist has to fill its pages every week and once the US government funded the likes of Henry Kissinger, so, at face value, another former US backed project is nothing more than that to me...

i haven't read the model, but do I assume that if you suggest that there is only a 10% chance of something happening and it doesn't happen then you are technically, according to the model, 90% correct???
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[SloggingScotsman]

[explorerJC]

[SloggingScotsman]

[explorerJC]

So far on this thread, two questions have been asked by me, one to establish an understanding on the methodology and the other, more loosely, to identify its value.

Both questions were about the concept, not the person...

I made some slight mockery of your regular choices of source however, and i believe these are open to debate in terms of reliability and value....as are anyone else's in an open forum.

If you really believe that this is bullying, you are, of course, entitled to draw your opinion, however, I would put myself into the safe hands of the wider audience on that.
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www.naturalrunningform.co.uk Natural Running Form Coach

2017 Training Camps http://www.appliedtri.co.uk/training-camps/

[Tigger]

[SloggingScotsman]

[GrahamO]

I blame the NHS for their inability to keep him in his cell and properly medicated.
_________________
Arguing with engineers is like wrestling in mud with a pig - after a while you realise they like it
newMan : I don't know why you think you can address me like that! Don't ever reply directly to any of my posts again please.

[Tigger]

[SloggingScotsman]