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Referendum 2: The return of the #@?#
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
doug wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
they really don't help themselves, do they?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45512152


Exactly and about time too, it is one of the bazillion little things that shows that no deal is probably about the worst deal - if we leave without a deal we pull out of the existing arrangements on driving license recognition. Hopefully the "no deal is better than a bad deal" true beleavers are finally realising what no deal actually means.


UK: So, driving licences. Same format?

EU: Yes

UK: Good. right, what's next on the agenda?



Ahh But Suppose you are wrong!

Can you imagine the consiquence of our licenses being INVALID in the rest of Europe, It dosn't bear thinking about!

It even states it in the Article...the HORROR


You do realise we would NEED a permit, that would cost £5.60!!!!!

AND if that's not bad enough we would need to go the POST OFFICE!!!! to get it!!!!!!!!!!


Thanks, Brexiters!
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
doug wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
they really don't help themselves, do they?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45512152


Exactly and about time too, it is one of the bazillion little things that shows that no deal is probably about the worst deal - if we leave without a deal we pull out of the existing arrangements on driving license recognition. Hopefully the "no deal is better than a bad deal" true beleavers are finally realising what no deal actually means.


UK: So, driving licences. Same format?

EU: Yes

UK: Good. right, what's next on the agenda?



Ahh But Suppose you are wrong!

Can you imagine the consiquence of our licenses being INVALID in the rest of Europe, It dosn't bear thinking about!

It even states it in the Article...the HORROR


You do realise we would NEED a permit, that would cost £5.60!!!!!

AND if that's not bad enough we would need to go the POST OFFICE!!!! to get it!!!!!!!!!!


Thanks, Brexiters!


i know! we would have to bring back the village Post Office...that would be a disaster for humanity...

all those hours wasted in the queue behind granny buying postal orders and sending telegrams...
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
all those hours wasted in the queue behind granny buying postal orders and sending telegrams...


Which she has chosen to do at lunchtime.
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678

This looks cheery
funnily enough I had a plumber in yesterday, and his mate who came to clear the rubbish away was talking about this. He, just an ordinary tradesman, was worried about exactly this. He expects property prices to crash.


If you read beyond the headline, what Carney is actually saying is that they've run stress tests on the impact that a 30% fall in house process would do and they are confident that the banking system is robust enough to withstand it.

He is expecting a fall in house prices in early 2019 because there's likely to be fewer buyers but the same number of sellers, but the 30% crash is an extreme, doomsday scenario that they don't expect to see Rolling Eyes
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whisk wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678

This looks cheery
funnily enough I had a plumber in yesterday, and his mate who came to clear the rubbish away was talking about this. He, just an ordinary tradesman, was worried about exactly this. He expects property prices to crash.


If you read beyond the headline, what Carney is actually saying is that they've run stress tests on the impact that a 30% fall in house process would do and they are confident that the banking system is robust enough to withstand it.

He is expecting a fall in house prices in early 2019 because there's likely to be fewer buyers but the same number of sellers, but the 30% crash is an extreme, doomsday scenario that they don't expect to see Rolling Eyes


why read and understand the whole article if the headline supports your ideology?
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Wheezy




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?


he got the initial reaction to the referendum wrong though.

That said, it doesn't take much to realise that there would be a financial penalty to brexit
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?


After the last financial crisis, I don't think the BoE would be doing their job properly if they weren't running extreme stress tests to test the robustness of the banking system. The UK banks are massively exposed to the UK housing market, which many people see as being a bubble.

Brexit potentially increases the risk of a housing market crash. but that risk has been there for years.
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?


Yes, it's kind of his job?

Of Course, he would be using different Doomsday scenarios, as there would be little point Brexit if it wasn't happening, but they would still be testing the robustness of the UK Banking system to stand up to different Stresses and strains, As if it can't, it needs adjustments to make sure it can.

The Good news is this disaster showed that as a whole the Banking system could withstand this level of disaster, which is nice...
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Wheezy




Joined: 10 Oct 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?


Yes, it's kind of his job?


I think someone needs to remind JRM of that.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
SGreg wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
Mark Carney is one of the few adults in the room who I have a degree of trust in, at the moment. I appreciate it's not a prediction. But would the Governor of the bank of England even be having to conduct these stress tests, if it' wasn't for Brexit?


Yes, it's kind of his job?


I think someone needs to remind JRM of that.


it's his job to do the tests, but as he was rightly told in the lead up to the referendum, it's not his place to make political gain or offer political opinion...
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Wheezy




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IIRC he was rebuked by JRM and lord Lawson. Not the two mot impartial and balanced of politicians.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
IIRC he was rebuked by JRM and lord Lawson. Not the two mot impartial and balanced of politicians.


Why would you want impartial politicians? The lack of two sound, opposing sides is one of the reasons we are in this mess...
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He is right to point out the risks, because the UK economy is so dependent on house prices. House prices drive consumer spending, and consumer spending drives 60% of GDP. Any shock to house prices has a terrible impact on the economy. One could reasonably argue that this is not a sound model and at some point we have to suffer the pain of breaking it.

What would not be acceptable would be to offer this as a forecast
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From a quick review of this mornings news, I read that Hammond has suggested in Cabinet that Brexit needs to be delayed, admitted by « a few weeks » to give time to get laws into place.

May has said that has « zero chance of happening ». So that’s it settled then. Wink
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