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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 640
Location: Zug, Switzerland

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have not seen a forecast like this. I looked at 3 sets of pressure charts, from the Met Office, European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts and Weather Online. None of them look remotely similar,

ECMWF has a high pressure centered over the UK on Sunday, with light winds

Met office has a deepening Atlantic low off the coast of sounthern Ireland and High pressure over France, with unpredictable W or NW winds over the west of UK, it could be really windy in one location and calm 100 miles to the east


Weather Online has the Atlantic Low over the top of UK with very strong winds over the whole country, but especially the south coast

Basically at this stage it is a total guessing game
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
Posts: 17748
Location: alles was ich bin, alles was ich war

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
I have not seen a forecast like this. I looked at 3 sets of pressure charts, from the Met Office, European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts and Weather Online. None of them look remotely similar


It'll probably be unfavourable on the day Smile
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 640
Location: Zug, Switzerland

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
mattsurf wrote:
I have not seen a forecast like this. I looked at 3 sets of pressure charts, from the Met Office, European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts and Weather Online. None of them look remotely similar


It'll probably be unfavourable on the day Smile


I's all relative, for me, if it is pretty windy it will probably be better as it will neutralise the pace of the faster swimmers and benefit the stronger cyclists
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 640
Location: Zug, Switzerland

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
As of last night BBC had no storm, just breezy and some rain. They did note 'some unpredictability with the models with some predicting a intensification of the low' - which would be the storm.

Other forecast sites are lining up behind the prediction of the storm (they had it relatively benign until today).

I suspect BBC when they run the data for this evenings forecast will follow suit; which will be time to start duathlon training...

I put an 808 and disc on at the weekend given a lovely log term forecast so they'll have to come off.....

B&gger....


Looks like you were right, BBC now alignining with other forecasts
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep when they all line up as they have now they are usually very accurate. Rain from Saturday lunch to mid Sunday pm by the looks as well. Terrible.
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

40-47mph winds, rain from 11 saturday to sunday pm.

Do we reckon we'll get a duathlon....or a half marathon?

Rolling Eyes
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
Posts: 1863

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It'll be interesting to see.
I recall this thread from ST earlier in the year: https://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Discs_and_wind_don't_mix_-_urban_myth%3F_P6627326
The wind in that video looks horrendous, yet they went ahead and as the OP says, he even rode a disc and 808 Shocked

Not going to lie. I'm now not disappointed at all that I didnt end up being able to race this weekend!

EDIT - this forum doesnt like the apostrophe in the URL for some reason. You'll have to copy-paste
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mindset is slowly changing. It's going to be epic.

I've swum in rough seas off east Anglia and TT'd many times in strong and even gale force winds.

I hope its miserable as forecast, in fact is as bad as it can possibly be, and still be a full event.

It'll be one to talk about for years....
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Stivrunning




Joined: 23 Dec 2008
Posts: 1268
Location: up north

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Mindset is slowly changing. It's going to be epic.

I've swum in rough seas off east Anglia and TT'd many times in strong and even gale force winds.

I hope its miserable as forecast, in fact is as bad as it can possibly be, and still be a full event.

It'll be one to talk about for years....


exactly Exclamation

that's the approach
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Blueisthecolour




Joined: 28 Feb 2013
Posts: 4

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't care if it's a short swim - as long as it's NOT a duathlon
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moonmonkey02




Joined: 30 Sep 2008
Posts: 243
Location: somewhere eating Pot Fish

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't know what all the fuss is about: according to the BBC site the wind now is 45mph+ but the sea looks lovely and calm.

https://youtu.be/gxIsGzD2Pqw

Should sort out the men from the boys on Sunday!
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moonmonkey02




Joined: 30 Sep 2008
Posts: 243
Location: somewhere eating Pot Fish

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guess they might be able to use the odd caravan in the sea to mark the swim course too: save time mucking about with bouys.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45572946
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charlton89




Joined: 12 Jun 2018
Posts: 22

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

im at Weymouth this Sunday too. Must admit im wondering what its going to end up being, if conditions are as forecasted I cant see them allowing the swim to go ahead which would be a shame as its one of my strong points!

Also im not sure how safe the bike route will be, some of the gusts being forecasted could cause carnage, I was of course planning on using my TT bike, ive got 80's on front and rear but may well change out my front wheel for something a bit more sensible, I don't want to be riding my road bike. Ive just got this feeling the bike might not even happen but then again would they really just make it a half marathon! Would hardly be worth it

Im expecting to hear something in the next day or so as most people (me included) will be travelling down to Weymouth on Friday. All events are supposed to be challenging I guess! I went for a bit of a practice run in 40mph winds today to see how it was, safe to say when I had it behind me it was great, running into it felt quite ridiculous, I live right on the coast so I ran along the North Sea.

Going to be interesting whatever happens
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I swapped from 80mm front disc rear to 30mm front 80mm rear last night.

I may still bring the disc Twisted Evil Laughing Wink

(Rode the 30mm/disc combo at IM Wales just gone, about 20 mph winds and it was fine)
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charlton89




Joined: 12 Jun 2018
Posts: 22

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
I swapped from 80mm front disc rear to 30mm front 80mm rear last night.

I may still bring the disc Twisted Evil Laughing Wink

(Rode the 30mm/disc combo at IM Wales just gone, about 20 mph winds and it was fine)


good idea. I don't have a disc but if I did I would bring it in case! You think 80's on rear will be fine even in gale force winds? Should be I think. My front wheel will only be 20 I think, but I will bring the 80 just in case, very much doubt I will get to use it though. First race ive had to switch it up, im comfortable enough on the set up even in 20-25mph winds but the forecast this weekend is something else, ive never tried it in those conditions so I have no idea how it would handle, im guessing a 60mph gust could send me overboard!
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