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Referendum 2: The return of the #@?#
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:

OTOH, a complete clear out of every politician who said they would vote to surrender the Uk wouldn't actually be a bad thing - think of all the waster politicians who would ignore their constituents and be thrown out of office.


You are just advocating a facist state.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
Tigger wrote:
If you have time to read it, this is interesting.

But if you just want to go ad hominem then go for it...


Interesting read - as far as i got, but work must prevail today...however, i wouldn't expect a former ambassador to offer a balanced view...therefore, i have picked out two early points:


And I have still yet to meet the senior person in any capital who wants to give Member States the right to impose numerical controls on free movement rights.

perhaps not, but, as we are experiencing across the world currently, the senior people are not really understanding of current affairs, particularly those which posed most of the dissent against the EU in ireland, france, holland and now the uk...

Frictionless trade comes with free movement. And with the European Court of Justice

and this is only the case if your ideology insists on it...but it comes with a massive flaw...


It would be easy to dismiss this as article as another example of project fear... however, I felt that it was a well constructed arguement, and reflects the genuine fears of someone who has a massive amount of experience in this field.

EJC, there is a lot of anger in Europe about immigrants, however, it is almost all about non EU immigrants, it is only in the UK where we have an issue with immigrants from Eastern Europe

Ivan Rogers does make the point that the ECJ goes far beyond free trade, however, I agree with him that Frictionless trade does come with the ECJ. He also makes a very fair point that it is the UK that wants to exit, therefore why should the EU change its fundamental principles, it gets zero benefit from doing so

I think that what we are seeing is the best negotiating team on the plannet brokering an agreement with a bunch of plucky amateurs.

I believe that Ivan is actually saying that an unnegotiated hard Brexit would not be unattractive for the EU as it puts them in a far stronger position for phase 2 of the negotiations


That the EU has tied its nation states in legal knots is hardly surprising and that it is all but impossible to extricate ourselves from it is equally hardly surprising...hardly a case of better negotiators, more a case of what happens when you give up sovereignty without a struggle...

I am still awaiting a strong argument as to why you need a supreme court that can vote itself a pay rise and thus be above those they represent to have free trade...

As for migration/immigration...had the EU enforced their laws then some measure on control/management of mainland non EU immigration could have been possible. This has evidently not been the case. i need a little more time to answer this point fully...however, in the course of time, today's non eu migrant becomes tomorrow's EU migrant...
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
GrahamO wrote:

OTOH, a complete clear out of every politician who said they would vote to surrender the Uk wouldn't actually be a bad thing - think of all the waster politicians who would ignore their constituents and be thrown out of office.


You are just advocating a facist state.


not sure why voting out incompetence would make the state fascist....forcing an ideology on a population would be more in line with that...
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not surprised to see the EU immigration policy going so swimmingly...it would be funny if it wasn't so serious...
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not often the EU can take the moral high ground...but for once, the mess of the house of commons has handed it over on a plate...
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think the EU can take a particularly high ground - listening to the Eurocrats complaining that they negotiated 'a good deal' and that its the UK fault that it didnt accept their poor offer was pretty amusing.

You could tell they couldn't actually comprehend that a country had just stuck two fingers up at them. This after the US failed to tell them they were relegated in importance.

Then they complimented Barnier on a great deal, ignoring the fact that it wasnt actually a deal but was a complete failure. There was no deal, but a failure on the UK part to get serious early on with the EU and a failure in the EU to understand that they wouldnt get agreement for a rubbish deal. The EU couldn't comprehend that the UK red lines mean something.

And then we have Drunker showing signs of demential again, by claiming he still didnt know what the UK wanted. He did know but ignored it because he didnt like it.

Nobody is likely to get Barnier to negotiate anything in future. Which is a good thing.

Popcorn bag 2 at the ready - especially with the EU countries (not the Commission) now really worried that No Deal is a possibility as the vast majority of the MP's don't like the EU offer.
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
the vast majority of the MP's don't like the EU offer.

The problem is, the vast majority of MPs wont like ANY deal. They voted against yesterdays deal offer for widely disparate reasons.

Come back with a harder brexit offer, and some of those who voted against will be happy, but a large swathe who voted against because they wanted something softer, or no Brexit at all, will still be unhappy. And moreover, some of those who voted with the old deal yesterday, may not like something harder.

And vice versa if it moves to something softer, akin to what Labour want (being in a Customs Union etc).

This is just a prime example of the point I, and many, have been making all along. "Brexit" means different things to different people, in exactly the same manner as it did to the general population when the original referendum was held*.

I think what yesterday's vote in the HoC demonstrated is that it's pretty certain we wont get a majority agreement for any deal. In which case, no deal or delay/cancellation are really the only options I can see prevailing. And the latter needs some action in the next two and a half months. So no deal must be a current favourite.

*yes, I know you (GrahamO) and others (Gus, eJC, etc) will say you know exactly what you voted for. I don't disagree with that. But you have to accept it is true that your cross in the Leave box did not mean the precisely same thing as every other person who also put a cross in the Leave box.
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stenard wrote:
*yes, I know you (GrahamO) and others (Gus, eJC, etc) will say you know exactly what you voted for. I don't disagree with that. But you have to accept it is true that your cross in the Leave box did not mean the precisely same thing as every other person who also put a cross in the Leave box.


Indeed, but regardless of the reasons, there was a cross in the box and nobody that put a cross in the box wanted to stay under EU control which is what May has negotiated - being a vassal state as others have called it.

The majority voted last night (in my opinion) solely because of the backstop - take that issue away and I think most of them will flip, but the EU is desperate to keep the UK in and this is their only way - by basically refusing to let the UK leave. The vote last night was, irrespective of the Remain/Brexit belief, that the backstop was an anathema to parliament as they were then under EU control. At least both sides agree the deal was sh*t, due to the backstop.

Even Remain MP's know that staying in the Customs Union is suicide for them personally and politically, so despite the noise they make, they will never agree to staying in the Customs Union, because they know it is one of the few factors that they cannot deny the voters wanted out from.
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Last edited by GrahamO on Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Whisk




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stenard wrote:
So no deal must be a current favourite.



I think "no deal" is probably the outcome that fewest people actually want to see. May's main leverage to get her deal through was that if it didn't then we would leave without a deal and the government was keen that they were preparing for a no deal scenario (dodgy ferry contracts, traffic jam practice etc Rolling Eyes ).

The people saying go back to the EU and renegotiate are working on the basis that the EU doesn't want a no deal exit, but the EU is keen to show people that it is preparing for a no deal scenario.

Assuming that most MPs want to avoid a no deal brexit and the EU isn't going to give any ground, it's difficult to see how things are going to move forward.
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whisk wrote:
Assuming that most MPs want to avoid a no deal brexit and the EU isn't going to give any ground, it's difficult to see how things are going to move forward.

Definitely agree with this. And also agree that a no deal brexit is not what people want, despite me thinking it is now more likely. The reason I feel that is because of the above.
GrahamO wrote:
Even Remain MP's know that staying in the Customs Union is suicide for them personally and politically, so despite the noise they make, they will never agree to staying in the Customs Union, because they know it is one of the few factors that they cannot deny the voters wanted out from.

Yet that's what Labour's alternative approach precisely is. And don't they have significant party membership support for it? Many of those members being the ones who voted Leave originally?

Which is funny really, given most people think Corbyn is a closet Brexiteer.

Political suicide seems to be actually detached from Brexit. As last night's vote, the original referendum and the subsequent General Election all show, voters position on Brexit is entirely independent on their other political party beliefs. It's the only reason May is still in office and likely to win the no confidence vote, despite having suffered such a humiliating defeat. Delivering Brexit is not really a Tory only policy objective, given that the remain/leave position of voters was split across almost all parties in the GE.
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Last edited by stenard on Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO, I know you would have voted to Leave. But were you able to cast a vote in the UAE? I guess it depends how long you've been away, and if you still have a residence officially in the UK.
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
GrahamO, I know you would have voted to Leave. But were you able to cast a vote in the UAE? I guess it depends how long you've been away, and if you still have a residence officially in the UK.


15 years is the cutoff and yes, I can vote. I vote via Proxy, rather than Postal as I don't collect the post very often. And I do keep a UK residence and am on the electoral role and pay full Council tax.

No Deal may not be what the people want, but the EU has been told very clearly, that their position results in No Deal as May won't dare kick the can down the road as more Remain MP's are likely to flip when they realise how undemocratic/EU-like, deferring a vote until you get the answer you want actually is.
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Buzz_




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I actually think an Article 50 extension is the most likely scenario, as for all their posturing, no-one is actually ready for a no-deal. We crash out and most front-line staff won't actually know what they are supposed to do. Just wait for the lawyers to queue up and sue for every mistake that "cost their clients millions"
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't entirely disagree with you. Although a delay does require EU agreement. No deal or cancelling the whole thing entirely we can do unilaterally
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stenard wrote:
I don't entirely disagree with you. Although a delay does require EU agreement. No deal or cancelling the whole thing entirely we can do unilaterally


a delay requires a change in UK law...something that the speaker is trying to enable...
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