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Ironman - Market saturation or decline?
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:27 pm    Post subject: Ironman - Market saturation or decline? Reply with quote

Got around to entering my first branded IM in 4 years the other day, and it will only be a periodic thing now, until I get fed-up of tri.

I noticed that of the Full distance races between now and the end of June, only 4 out of 13 are sold-out (Texas, Cork, Frankfurt & Nice). None of those surprise me, but some of the events that are still on Tier 2/3 do (NZ and two in Australia). My gut feeling is that Cork is in a honeymoon period, based on location and the Irish 'image'.

Saturation or decline? I reckon we're comfortably past peak participation as a sport in general. But if it went back to the number of Ironman 140.6 races there were 10 years ago, would they fill-up more readily?
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It must have something to do with the amount of races about. 140.6 is not something "normal" people do more that a couple of per year, if that. Therefore, when you add a new race, you have to either attract new people or you spread out the participants more widely.

Personally, I'm not particularly sad that things are diluting a bit. It at least means you don't have to be entering things 12m in advance. And come race day, most races still seem to be pretty much at capacity.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, it's the first time I've not entered an Mdot 12 months in advance! Tbh, I don't mind a bit of natural decline anyway, as the sport has become practically 'mainstream' since I started out in '92.

Whereas the 113 is selling-out quicker than ever Wink
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a controversial view - its reducing because less and less younger people who might be in prime condition and thereby capable of doing triathlons are reducing in number because they are all gym obsessed bunnies with no ability to stick with something, make a commitment and do something without their mum ploughing the way ahead for them Very Happy

Millennials are now aged 22 to 38 years old so you can expect mass participation sports to reduce in popularity as those are pretty much the years when people are at their peak for endurance sports.

It'll be a few years until cycling is impacted much more as MAMILS tend to take cycling up much later in life ......

Happy New Year Rolling Eyes
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally, I disagree. The higher rate of "one and done" appears to be in the 30-45 bracket from what I have seen. Although I guess your stated age range does capture quite a large portion of that. It's strange, I don't consider myself in the millennial bracket, despite being 3 years inside the "window".

Outside of people who are drawn to triathlon early in their lives and then tend to follow some kind of performance pathway, there's very few "young" people who gravitate to it early in their lives in my opinion. There's too many other mainstream sports that are a bigger attraction. Some of them like swimming are clearly of benefit, but very few people are "doing triathlon" as their sole focus when young, at least relatively.

As a case study of my club in London, with >1000 members, the under 25 population is really really small, and the 25-30 population isn't huge either. It ramps up at 30+.

I'm a case in point with that, joining them in my early 30's, after playing team sports all the way up until my late 20's, and then changing focus after a spate of contact sport injuries.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another year of Graham banging the Millennial-Snowflake-Remain-Voter drum Wink Very Happy
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jibberjim




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
It'll be a few years until cycling is impacted much more as MAMILS tend to take cycling up much later in life ......


I'd say Ironman triathlon is even later than MAMIL peak... certainly the largest Ironman age groups are right at the top and above your age. 62% of IM UK starters in 2018 were in the 40+ age groups...
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jibberjim wrote:
GrahamO wrote:
It'll be a few years until cycling is impacted much more as MAMILS tend to take cycling up much later in life ......


...certainly the largest Ironman age groups are right at the top and above your age. 62% of IM UK starters in 2018 were in the 40+ age groups...


The people are tired of hearing from experts (and their facts)
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
jibberjim wrote:
GrahamO wrote:
It'll be a few years until cycling is impacted much more as MAMILS tend to take cycling up much later in life ......


...certainly the largest Ironman age groups are right at the top and above your age. 62% of IM UK starters in 2018 were in the 40+ age groups...


The people are tired of hearing from experts (and their facts)


or perhaps just their ideologies...
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

probably a multitude of contributory factors...but with tightening belts (cost and calories), i'd guess less people are in a position to do them and those who still like a 'challenge' have moved on to other tattoo opportunities...
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Another year of Graham banging the Millennial-Snowflake-Remain-Voter drum Wink Very Happy


At least I'm consistent, unlike the snowflakes out there Very Happy
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Bluepoolshark




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It has to be a cost thing, Lanzarote is currently 646 to enter, that is an utterly obscene amount of money for one race Shocked
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jibberjim wrote:
I'd say Ironman triathlon is even later than MAMIL peak... certainly the largest Ironman age groups are right at the top and above your age. 62% of IM UK starters in 2018 were in the 40+ age groups...


Indeed, so the snowflakes are getting to peak Ironman age and are not refilling the ranks at the same rate as with previous years. But at least the volume of poseurs on Instagram keep the UK high on the world most pointless youth ranking Smile

A certain headmaster once commented to the press that certain demographics were placing zero importance upon team sports, and the longer term effects would be the collapse of ability in the national team. Of course the press were all over him at the time, but 15 years later, their national sides in two sports are sh*t (relative to the past) and they simply don't have the numbers to choose from anymore as certain parts of the community simply aren't interested.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bluepoolshark wrote:
It has to be a cost thing, Lanzarote is currently 646 to enter, that is an utterly obscene amount of money for one race Shocked


Plus the cost of travel and accommodation which isnt cheap either.

As Spains economy is deflating like a balloon, they have to get someone to pay because they won't make much out of tourism given the competition.
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stenard




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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bluepoolshark wrote:
It has to be a cost thing, Lanzarote is currently 646 to enter, that is an utterly obscene amount of money for one race Shocked

Blimey. That shocked me, so I looked back at how much I paid for Copenhagen. I seem to have just blanked out that it cost me 500!

I see Barcelona is already sold out, unless you pay an inflated Nirvana entrance fee. That one is a staggering EUR 697. Clearly draft-fest pb courses are very appealing.

One thing that was strange about Lanza is it seems to be the only one I'm aware of that's still on a deadline based price hike basis, not tiered in terms of when spots fill up.
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