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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

I mean, given what I have done in life, I am sure that I am a 'person of interest' to many security services globally.


Once more, you flatter yourself.
If that is my greatest sin Jorgan, it ain't so bad.

Look my point is that with mass surveillance (which I support btw) everyone is 'known to the security services' or a 'person of interest' which can be rolled out as required.


If your phone and web data are in a database you are 'known' and 'person of interest' (at least potentially).

While I trust the security services to make solid judgements, the press well that is another matter.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're being a pedant Sloggers; person of interest does not mean 'we have access to your bank, phone and internet records'. That's several billion people.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
You're being a pedant Sloggers; person of interest does not mean 'we have access to your bank, phone and internet records'. That's several billion people.
and that is my point.

If MI5 say 'this bloke is known to us' I am trusting of them enough to think that means something.

But when I read in the press that someone 'was known to the security services' I look at the precise wording and often think that it could apply to literally anyone.

Pendant possibly, but I do worry about the dark roads that we are aimlessly blindly wandering down as nations fracture, get more extreme politics and more nationalistic.

we need to learn from our past mistakes as individuals, and as nations, not repeat them, especially at such a divisive global political time.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Much like the weather, history works in cycles...because people ignore the past, and greed (for whatever) is a powerful motive.

When they use the term 'known to us' it's because they have investigated that individual in the past/present. I would have thought that's obvious, and not a point worthy of further semantic discussion.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Much like the weather, history works in cycles...because people ignore the past, and greed (for whatever) is a powerful motive.

When they use the term 'known to us' it's because they have investigated that individual in the past/present. I would have thought that's obvious, and not a point worthy of further semantic discussion.
Jorgan

What if said bloke was investigated in the past but today he was just walking to rob a shop?

Razz

Sorry couldn't help myself. Wink
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Much like the weather, history works in cycles...because people ignore the past, and greed (for whatever) is a powerful motive.
i agree.

Now I am being serious. (Given my humour often get mistaken as belief on here)

And we are walking down dark roads. The cycle is indeed repeating, and we as a world are failing to recognise it. That is natural. And you are obviously correct about greed, money is one of the fastest routes to darkness known to man (ask a casino operator) as is greed for power (I'm the boss dam@it).

I have just invested time over the past decade pointing this out, in the hope that I enable some to pause for thought, so that better, or at least less bad, decisions are made this time around.
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Last edited by SloggingScotsman on Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

But to say that someone who is carrying a knife is a terrorist simply because they happen to be near Downing Street is ludicrous.


You missed the point; he was a 'person of interest' to the security services.

explorerJC wrote:

who else uses it who doesn't have a political agenda?


The various people who make money out of it, politically affiliated or not. C'mon, you know the rest.


absolutely
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My son just shook his head at me as I told him that I was reading The Economist for pleasure Shocked

Funnily enough it was this weeks lead article on America, on how it's State department is being hollowed out, further resignations likely etc etc, with the overall point being that America is increasing its hard power while vastly reducing (budgets, vacant appointments, resignations now and expected) its soft power.

This, to me at least, supports my belief that down the line America is going to be playing second fiddle globally. While if that is what America wants fair enough, and let's be fair every 'empire rises and falls'.

It does make me wonder however how much more terror will happen in the world now that American diplomats are becoming less experienced, demotivated and at the moment fewer in number.

While the void will be filled by China, perhaps Russia (if France votes Frexit under Le Pen, one consequence of which I am sure would be much greater Russian influence in the EU, not saying that would be a bad thing just different), it would have been nice if the EU as it was could have helped fill this impending gulf, as global power balances rapidly shift. While it would be nice to think that we could help do it ourselves, I don't that that is realistic at this point in time (domestic politics, nationalism, austerity effects etc).

Anyhow my point, the more that I learn about what is happening, the more that I am becoming convinced that our world is entering a very dangerous stage of its history, where terrorism could become a much bigger problem, given the gulfs being created by global power shifts.

Do you think that the coming decade will be one of global prosperity or difficulty?

Wink
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
My son just shook his head at me as I told him that I was reading The Economist for pleasure Shocked

Funnily enough it was this weeks lead article on America, on how it's State department is being hollowed out, further resignations likely etc etc, with the overall point being that America is increasing its hard power while vastly reducing (budgets, vacant appointments, resignations now and expected) its soft power.

This, to me at least, supports my belief that down the line America is going to be playing second fiddle globally. While if that is what America wants fair enough, and let's be fair every 'empire rises and falls'.

It does make me wonder however how much more terror will happen in the world now that American diplomats are becoming less experienced, demotivated and at the moment fewer in number.

While the void will be filled by China, perhaps Russia (if France votes Frexit under Le Pen, one consequence of which I am sure would be much greater Russian influence in the EU, not saying that would be a bad thing just different), it would have been nice if the EU as it was could have helped fill this impending gulf, as global power balances rapidly shift. While it would be nice to think that we could help do it ourselves, I don't that that is realistic at this point in time (domestic politics, nationalism, austerity effects etc).

Anyhow my point, the more that I learn about what is happening, the more that I am becoming convinced that our world is entering a very dangerous stage of its history, where terrorism could become a much bigger problem, given the gulfs being created by global power shifts.

Do you think that the coming decade will be one of global prosperity or difficulty?

Wink


An isolationist US would be worrying geopolitically, and with Trump at the helm that was the fear but I don't think we're seeing it. The attack on Syria has reminded everyone that the US will blow you out of the water if it wants to.

I don't think we would recognise the decline of the US if it we're happening, as I doubt anyone living during the time could call the decline of the Roman Empire - it happens over many generations.

Terrorism is a problem, but war between major powers far outweighs anything terrorists can do. People forget because it's been 70 years but that's a drop in human history - war in Europe, with Russia, China, etc would have far worse consequences than the few thousand affected by terrorism.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot

I agree with you, just creating conversation.

The only bit I would disagree on is that the decline of the US has been evident since:-

1. Bush and the global pushback, eventually, re extraordinary rendition and Gitmo, with President Obama recognising that and his public apology over it.

2. More relatively as China continues to rise, perhaps most obviously in the China Seas.

Remember, whether you think that I am a big head nitwit or whatever, I do have a provable track record of beating consensus predictions, twenty years ago proveability being in the people who laughed in my face, and more recently mathematically in the good judgement project.

This is one of these 'gut feelings' that time tends to prove. It is also borne out by facts on the ground.

But apart from that I do agree with you.
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot

I agree with you, just creating conversation.

The only bit I would disagree on is that the decline of the US has been evident since:-

1. Bush and the global pushback, eventually, re extraordinary rendition and Gitmo, with President Obama recognising that and his public apology over it.

2. More relatively as China continues to rise, perhaps most obviously in the China Seas.


In my opinion;

1. More political jangling - but no reduction in power.

2. Is China rising? Is their military and economic might much different than twenty/thirty years ago(relatively)?
Certainly potential for conflict in the south china seas, which has been there and not erupted for some time.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot

I agree with you, just creating conversation.

The only bit I would disagree on is that the decline of the US has been evident since:-

1. Bush and the global pushback, eventually, re extraordinary rendition and Gitmo, with President Obama recognising that and his public apology over it.

2. More relatively as China continues to rise, perhaps most obviously in the China Seas.


In my opinion;

1. More political jangling - but no reduction in power.

2. Is China rising? Is their military and economic might much different than twenty/thirty years ago(relatively)?
Certainly potential for conflict in the south china seas, which has been there and not erupted for some time.


1. I disagree. This is significant. It's not just politicians politicking. Not only did the President apologise (how often do politicians do that) but (2) ordinary citizens globally considered renditions and Gitmo wrong. This has an effect on people's opinions, and in turn respect, trust etc. The key point here is that comparing before Gitmo and after there was a noticeable change in 'whether America is doing the right thing'. It has been reinforced in the publics mind through the media, tv, films, and indeed smoothed a bit by the President publicly apologising.

America may still be as strong intergovernmentally, I don't know, (but this weeks Economist suggest that the vacating of the state department is significant at the moment) but in terms of global opinion it has taken a distinct setback. And one thing we now know is that public opinion can radically change politics, globally, including in the US itself just now!



2. Yes. Oh yes, from grasping the lead at Davos this year, to its China Sea activities, via a whole raft of regional policy issues, and longer term through its outreach programs, to more recent one belt one Road. It's all soft power growth (ok China Sea can iirc get fishing boats sunk in collisions).
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot

I agree with you, just creating conversation.

The only bit I would disagree on is that the decline of the US has been evident since:-

1. Bush and the global pushback, eventually, re extraordinary rendition and Gitmo, with President Obama recognising that and his public apology over it.

2. More relatively as China continues to rise, perhaps most obviously in the China Seas.


In my opinion;

1. More political jangling - but no reduction in power.

2. Is China rising? Is their military and economic might much different than twenty/thirty years ago(relatively)?
Certainly potential for conflict in the south china seas, which has been there and not erupted for some time.


The US is certainly imploding culturally, not as badly as Canada at present but then they don't have the same global power.

The US apology didn't go so far as to shut Gitmo which sums up the last 8 or so years. Obama really was hampered by the results of some poor inherited foreign policy, the far left and his Nobel peace prize...
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps more concerning is the bigger picture of human civilisation, and how much longer it can be sustained at its current growth & consumption rate.
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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Perhaps more concerning is the bigger picture of human civilisation, and how much longer it can be sustained at its current growth & consumption rate.


i've been saying that for years....but you can't solve that without treading on the toes of the theologists, the capitalists, the leftists etc...
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