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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 11:45 am    Post subject: War on Terror Reply with quote

Can't help but think that this may turn out to be a huge mistake.

Don't get me wrong terror is a problem that needs to be dealt with. But....

1. Look how the war on terror has affect President Bushs legacy. Torture, Gitmo, renditions, President Obama publicly apologising for it. The way that the world now looks at America.

By declaring war, that could easily play into the hands of IS, but I am sure that has already been analysed by our spooks, and I will defer accurate judgement to them on this.

It is also risky re the election, as while (1) it could bolster people to vote for her, equally (2) with memories of Bush it could actually cause the opposite outcome. Again I am sure Tory strategists have weighed this up.


For clarity I am happy with troops on the streets just now as our police could probably use the resource help after all the cut backs. The solution though is not to declare war (as people will fight back potentially causing further terrorist acts....lust look at the people who now hate America because of what America did to their relatives at Gitmo, or through drone strikes) but to work towards helping people make better decisions by feeling fully part of society. Though I give you that is more of a long term solution.

Just now we need calm, a strong visible police and military presence, very good intelligence, but not to declare "war". From what I learnt on a Georgetown university mooc on terrorism that is playing straight into their hands.

I am guessing that this is an example of where "political opportunity" (though see proviso above) collides with "terrorism and counter terrorism experience". Surely she must know this from her time as Home Secretary?


And to think I was actually considering voting for her. Jesus, Lib Dems or Labour what a flipping choice.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt the 'War on Terror' is responsible for all the suicide bombs that target & kill thousands of muslims in islamic countries every year.

What came first, the Terror, or the War on Terror? How much Islamic Terror was there before the demise of Saddam, Gaddaffi & the civil war in Syria?

So it's a No and a Yes.
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tommy060289




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
with memories of Bush it could actually cause the opposite outcome


No chance! Most people cant remember what they had for breakfast! Nvm what a mess Bush made!
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FatPom




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't get all the hand wringing. It's all very well to sit around and say something won't work but what do you do? The hard line doesn't seem to work but nor does passive Euro style appeasement.

Neither is working but sitting around singing koombya and saying how pretty the London eye looks all lit up in red white and blue isn't really cutting it either.
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Chrace




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There seems to be an assumption that bombing western civilian targets is to harm us directly.

General strategic thought on IS attacks is that it is to show that IS "are strong and can hit anywhere". This shows power, driving recruitment at local regional level, moving towards the desired outcome of a caliphate.

Media coverage helps to show this, hence why civilian targets are not only easier but also preferable. The more carnage the better.

After all, as horrible as the Manchester, 7/7 and 7/11 attacks have been they have little effect on fighting the western military forces. In fact, support for funding instead goes up.

We cannot apply western logic to this problem.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chrace wrote:
There seems to be an assumption that bombing western civilian targets is to harm us directly.

General strategic thought on IS attacks is that it is to show that IS "are strong and can hit anywhere". This shows power, driving recruitment at local regional level, moving towards the desired outcome of a caliphate.

Media coverage helps to show this, hence why civilian targets are not only easier but also preferable. The more carnage the better.

After all, as horrible as the Manchester, 7/7 and 7/11 attacks have been they have little effect on fighting the western military forces. In fact, support for funding instead goes up.

We cannot apply western logic to this problem.
indeed.

Media coverage, the more spectacular the better, the politicians who wage "war" are playing directly into their hands. This stuff is taught on university courses on terrorism. The more you generate publicity the better the target you become for future attacks...."Britain is at war with us.....let's defend ourselves!" Their publicity may go, swiftly followed by recruitment and funding campaigns.

Georgetown university mooc....Terrorism and counterterrorism, great course.
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FatPom




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chrace wrote:

We cannot apply western logic to this problem.


Then let's not apply a western solution.

OR, we could just do more of the same, 'cos that's going real fcuking well. Rolling Eyes
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
I doubt the 'War on Terror' is responsible for all the suicide bombs that target & kill thousands of muslims in islamic countries every year.

.


As much as the US gets the blame for the mess left behind in Iraq, rather than turn on each other, the Iraqi's may have fared better if they paused for some reflection to determine how to use the new found opportunity for democracy..


Jorgan wrote:
I How much Islamic Terror was there before the demise of Saddam, Gaddaffi & the civil war in Syria?
.


very little, simply because it wasn't tolerated, or it took place in other lands...
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chrace wrote:
There seems to be an assumption that bombing western civilian targets is to harm us directly.

General strategic thought on IS attacks is that it is to show that IS "are strong and can hit anywhere". This shows power, driving recruitment at local regional level, moving towards the desired outcome of a caliphate.

Media coverage helps to show this, hence why civilian targets are not only easier but also preferable. The more carnage the better.

After all, as horrible as the Manchester, 7/7 and 7/11 attacks have been they have little effect on fighting the western military forces. In fact, support for funding instead goes up.

We cannot apply western logic to this problem.


western logic certainly contributed to the problem...and we are not talking Bush's failings...

soft targets are always preferable to the terrorist compered to those that could fight back, however, in this case, i sense a change in both the BBC reporting and the Muslim commentators...hopefully this will now be a turning point where the whole of society condemns these atrocities...
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
As much as the US gets the blame for the mess left behind in Iraq,


Only by the truly ignorant and biased.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FatPom wrote:
I don't get all the hand wringing. It's all very well to sit around and say something won't work but what do you do? The hard line doesn't seem to work but nor does passive Euro style appeasement.

Neither is working but sitting around singing koombya and saying how pretty the London eye looks all lit up in red white and blue isn't really cutting it either.


along with the other 'victims' of the uk welfare state, nhs, education, minimum wage, equal rights etc...eventually either those in receipt will realise it is better than opportunities else where, or those paying for it (in and life) will get tired of having their best efforts thrown back at them...


...either way, it'll take a generation or two...
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:


...either way, it'll take a generation or two...
and the rest!

Unless either;-

1. Politicians get wiser fast. Or
2. The "messiah" appears and is accepted by all religions. (And they convince the flocks that peace is the way forward at this point in time).

I rather think we are talking millennia!

Thats no reason not to find better solutions though.

Mind you His Holiness the Pope seems to have got President Trump talking about peace so you never know.
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chrace wrote:
There seems to be an assumption that bombing western civilian targets is to harm us directly.

General strategic thought on IS attacks is that it is to show that IS "are strong and can hit anywhere". This shows power, driving recruitment at local regional level, moving towards the desired outcome of a caliphate.



Hear, hear.

Most people have no idea why Al Qaeda or IS exist, but are plenty confident to spout forth how they should be dealt with.

To those people: The audience for these incidents is not who you think it is.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
Chrace wrote:
There seems to be an assumption that bombing western civilian targets is to harm us directly.

General strategic thought on IS attacks is that it is to show that IS "are strong and can hit anywhere". This shows power, driving recruitment at local regional level, moving towards the desired outcome of a caliphate.



Hear, hear.

Most people have no idea why Al Qaeda or IS exist, but are plenty confident to spout forth how they should be dealt with.

To those people: The audience for these incidents is not who you think it is.


so, please enlighten us...
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we probably don't have time to wait for anyone's personal saviour to pitch up...today's fundamentalists have more weaponry and reach than any of history's previous fruitcakes...
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