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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whisk wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Corbyns team now see what is doable, people also see what is now possible. Discount that at political peril.



You're assuming that the Tories would fight another election in the same way as they've just fought this one. Do you think if we had a re-run of the EU referendum the "Remain" side would run the same campaign?

If it did look like another election was required to create a functioning government then I can't see the Tories keeping Theresa May as their leader. I think the last campaign has shown that she just isn't popular with the electorate.

I think they'll also learn their lessons about "dementia tax", winter fuel allowance and fox hunting when they come to write their manifesto Wink
fair comment
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
you are missing the precise point GrahamO.

Think of it like the four minute mile. That was impossible until Bannister, then several,others did it in short order. That's the point.

Illustrated another way, look at Trump and Macron. The forces are similar.


No, Corbyn in a drug (cash promises) fuelled race still only came in second place - whether he did it under 4 minutes was irrelevant as the other lot were ahead.

Promising more drugs for the economy wont make him any better a competitor. Because there are still more voters who will not fall for his false promises than who will vote for anyone promising cash for free. You just have to look at Greece to see what happens when politicians do that.

At the end of the day, Corbyn is an economic disaster whose solution to everything is make someone else pay and print money. And he'll be long dead by the time the damage is repaired.

BTW, Trump and Macron are a lot more right wing than Corbyn. More Cobynish means less like Trump or Macron.
grahamO, I realise that my 'energy threads' discussions annoys, but try to think of it like that (a bit like while very different, the collapse of the Soviet Union, Berlin Wall, Arab spring, umberella revolution etc etc, to Macron and Trump, share an energy or theme if you like).

Pause for a second GrahamO and reflect upon this 'energy' call it popular discontent if you like, and how it develops globally. That is my precise point.
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could, but it would be a waste of time. The scenarios are not even remotely similar.

The UK is a rich country, and even those claiming poverty get access to undreamed of wealth (NHS, schools etc) and the vast majority are not going to rebel because a tiny minority want more free money from other people.

The problem with the word 'poverty' is that its not absolute - someone on £60,000 a year would be defined as in poverty if the median were £100,000 per year.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
I could, but it would be a waste of time. The scenarios are not even remotely similar.

.
it would be a wise investment of time, and the scenarios are very similar in what is key here. But hey I accept that you don't 'get or see' that.

And you know you may be correct and I may be a raving loony.


Behave now. Wink
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
And you know you may be correct and I may be a raving loony. :


Must .........not .......... reply ............ Wink

the collapse of the Soviet Union => The USA military programme drove the USSR social cohesion to the wall. Relevance 0/10

Berlin Wall => Rich countries encouraged the Eastern Bloc to fragment with incentives to join. Relevance 1/10

Arab spring => Pretty much came to nothing. Only Morocco and Tunisia had an impact. Relevance 3/10

Umbrella revolution => Changed nothing Relevance 0/10
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
And you know you may be correct and I may be a raving loony. :


Must .........not .......... reply ............ Wink

the collapse of the Soviet Union => The USA military programme drove the USSR social cohesion to the wall. Relevance 0/10

Berlin Wall => Rich countries encouraged the Eastern Bloc to fragment with incentives to join. Relevance 1/10

Arab spring => Pretty much came to nothing. Only Morocco and Tunisia had an impact. Relevance 3/10

Umbrella revolution => Changed nothing Relevance 0/10
you are still missing the point GrahamO

Try to think emotionally for a moment. Try to grasp the feelings in Labour voters and potential voters minds.

Now reaate that back to the 'energy' eg of the night in the people when the Berlin Wall fell.

The Tiannamen Square event failed , yet look at the 100,000 in Hong Kong who were out on a candelite Virgil to mark Tiannamen Square. It probably drives the Chinese Community Party crazy, but it is the energy in the people's hearts.

Look emotionally, not at what has or hasn't succeeded. That is the key.
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Look emotionally, not at what has or hasn't succeeded. That is the key.


No, its irrelevant. Thats the snowflake in you talking. If you;re not going to 'win' then do something that does otherwise you end up like Corbyn - gesture politics limited by hashtags and voting against your own party for 50 years and achieving precisely zero. Too many snowflakes these days tis gestures matter. They do not.

Anyway, nice to talk - I'm off to Iftar !
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Look emotionally, not at what has or hasn't succeeded. That is the key.


No, its irrelevant. Thats the snowflake in you talking. If you;re not going to 'win' then do something that does otherwise you end up like Corbyn - gesture politics limited by hashtags and voting against your own party for 50 years and achieving precisely zero. Too many snowflakes these days tis gestures matter. They do not.

Anyway, nice to talk - I'm off to Iftar !
depends on how you see winning, after all Gandhi lost to us Brits many times. Then look what happened. Slaves lost many times to slave owners. Etc. Sometimes you have to loose many times over decades before you win.

Equally, I could be seen as a loser.

Yet:-

1. I worked my way from a troubled difficult childhood to the global professions.
2. I have answered the supposedly unanswerable eternal questions, which many people spend a lifetime on. Took me about a decade.
3. I have brought two kids up, both doing very well.
4. Looked after my ill and disabled wife for two decades.
5. Gained various sorts of peer recognition in my time (eg being called brother by a fair number of masons globally in person, in writing and on the net, when I am a Masonic reject; getting an award at a duathlon for inspiration)
6. Completing marathons and triathlons at over twenty stone.
7. Shown that it is possible to prevent 'certain types of people' spying on private stuff, admittedly for only 11 minutes, but I proved the principle.
8. Shown a way that it should be possible to find submarines.
9. Done well on the Good Judgement Project see below.
10. Helped two people in two countries in two religions find their way to their churches without even trying.
11. Survived a conversation with GrahamO.

So equally you could say that I have achieved some quite important and remarkable things.

Achievements are not always measured in monetary terms. They can be measured in helping others improve their lives, touching hearts and inspiring others, doing things that conventional wisdom says is impossible, etc.

Without welfare I would have achieved little of that, and JK Rowling would possibly not have been able to write Harry Potter.


Just now, given the financial and time resources I could use the above achievements, along with other stuff, to help strengthen (1) national and global security, (2) enable corporates to make even more money and become more resilient. Ok this isn't an achievement, and probably never will be, due to lack of time and resources to develop it all, but I know this is achievable, and spooks can verify my past work, but my point without welfare I would never have gained the time or skills to enable me to do these things. And if I help a submarine being found that one day doesn't then fire a missile that is of direct benefit to society.

So am I a loser? Now there is a question.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what price humility, eh?
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
what price humility, eh?
when you need to find a Job soon because of austerity, is it better to become homeless or point out what you can do?

Besides it was relevant to GrahamOs point.
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Besides it was relevant to GrahamOs point.


Not really, one data point doesnt make a curve.

Achievements are not always measured in monetary terms, but when you have limited oney, you dont go wasting it on the unproductive, in the blind hope there's an Einstein in there.

Its called the Gamblers fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

You dont improve things by throwing money into unproductive areas 'because eventually it will deliver a result'.

Got to go - to be up at 0430 to cycle before it gets to 40 degrees again.

Chin up Sloggers - you're not a loser no matte what the rest of them say Very Happy We all want to help out and all that differs is the mechanism, and treatment of probability of risk.

PS Stop calling running a huge deficit as 'austerity' as I've explained many times before. It ruins any credibility remaining.
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Paul L




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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
…when you need to find a Job soon because of austerity, is it better to become homeless or point out what you can do? …

Stewart – This will be my last attempt at offering you some advice, as I fear you can no longer see the wood for the trees.

So if there is even a chance that you will become homeless you really need to stick to the basics.

SloggingScotsman wrote:
…Just now, given the financial and time resources I could use the above achievements, along with other stuff, to help strengthen (1) national and global security, (2) enable corporates to make even more money and become more resilient...

The correct answer is ‘None of the above’, just get a ‘normal’/’traditional’ job that will pay your bills instead.

SloggingScotsman wrote:
…i believe that my file is two storage boxes thick!...

So MI5 has two storage boxes on someone who can’t decide who to vote for at a General Election? Rolling Eyes

I genuinely fear that your obsessions with ‘spooks’, remote viewing, secrets of the universe, etc. will make you unemployable.

Note:
It really doesn’t matter whether any of what you say is true or not.
As, one day, even the guy proclaiming ‘The End Is Nigh!’ will be right.
That doesn’t mean that anyone will take him seriously before then.

SloggingScotsman wrote:
… I happen to have had the foresight and the courage of my convictions to publicly point this out to our government back in 2010ish when they introduced it…

SloggingScotsman wrote:
This went to a couple of Tory MPs and public back in 2010.

Pasting has destroyed formatting.

Did pasting also the destroy the content?

As it took me two attempts to read it from start to finish and I was actively trying to understand it.

The harsh reality is that your letter is nothing short of rambling, incoherent, drivel without proper logic and structure and therefore no realistic hope of influencing anyone/anything.

Which means that the MPs you sent it to were unlikely to have read even half of it before despatching it to the pile marked ‘crank’.

There really is a vast difference between what you think you are saying and what you are actually saying.

E.g.
SloggingScotsman wrote:
…It is probably a good job that I don't run an established viewing team for I would already be hunting...

Despite all your reading and deep thinking, you wrote something crass and insensitive within hours of ‘real’ people being killed. Sad

Because, at best, it would only be a ‘good job’ for members of a terrorist group planning a future attack.

At worst, you appear to be suggesting that people would still be alive today if only you were on the case.

I really wish you all the best for the future.

Take care, Paul. Smile
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PaulL

Again I thank you for taking the time to help me. It really is appreciated, as I do value constructive criticism and looking at all issues from as many angles as possible. Hence I will reflect upon your words.

Some key points:-

1. Re basics, I agree which is why two years ago when my mum died I used a good chunk of the small inheritance on buying the ICAEW training manuals, which I have been plodding through conscientiously. Just a few weeks away from finishing the first read (we are talking about four feet of A4 manuals). Hopefully I can find a low level (non bookkeeping) management or financial accountants job somewhere. I will be starting to job hunt in around a months time, once I have finished my first read and got some other stuff completed. And if nothing else it has provided a good refresher from what I learnt a quarter of a century ago now, and which has been very useful already.

2. Unemployable, I will give you that, not only because of my hobbies but also because (and on this I do agree with Cameron) welfare can trap you and you do loose job relevant skills. It takes a lot of work to regain them. (He still went around sorting this problem the wrong way but is another issue.)

3. MI5 that was suppose to be a funny comment (though to be fair you would probably need to know the context of some banter I once had with a copper to get it). It is however true that some of my hobbies started in the spook world, before America declassified a lot of stuff after a whistleblowing scandal and change of General. Having found that it does actually work I have just been looking at the possibilities for the commercial world.

4. Re my letter, I give you that was instinctively written off the cuff when I realised that Cameron and co were about to drive fear into people's hearts. Which I personally think is the wrong thing for a government to do. And they have driven fear into people's hearts, leading to all sorts of problems for too many citizens. Injecting fear into citizens is not, in my opinion, a good thing for our government to do, so I stood up and asked for reflection.

5. My hunting comment, again I will admit that was an instinctive reaction. But then again I do know that in principal it is possible to find people this way, being able to do it reliably and usefully are other matters I give you, for a fair number of practical reasons. But it is in principle very doable. However that is a job for governments not me.

Anyhow PaulL I am well aware of the wood from the trees issue, turn that around and it is one reason why I have been able to do some of the stuff that I have been able to do. But it is always most difficult to see what is close to you. Hence the old adage.

Best
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:


Chin up Sloggers - you're not a loser no matte what the rest of them say Very Happy We all want to help out and all that differs is the mechanism, and treatment of probability of risk.
Thank you GrahamO, I genuinely appreciate that.

I am going to briefly hijack your words here to explain a couple of things to anyone who may be considering helping on my more esoteric interests.

1. Clearly ICAEW training manuals nowadays are full of risk analysis, so I do understand that.

2. Anyone who may be following my internet viewing, try to think like I think.

3. Historically there is a decade ish lag time between starting and results. Very broad brushly. Would love to say otherwise but it is what it is.

4. That said eg with The Economist article, sometimes I just "know" and in that case it took only about six months to get confident about the solution. That is exceptionally fast and not typical. I don't yet know why that one was so straightforward. Mind you Trump, Brexit and others, I simply knew months in advance.

5. Things that I have been doing on the internet over the past couple of years (1) may already have proven valuable, or not, clearly I don't know, but if I was correct a 'hat' or something would enable me to know and trust that feeling. (2) are being done for positive reasons which should help me progress further.

6. However I could use more money to notch things up, partially (1) for other resource access, e.g. Mathematicians, and (2) I do need to gain some specific life experiences which will cost stupid sums of money, and there is no easy way to convince anyone of that, beyond asking you to look at my past performance on what resources I have. However this, sadly as lower spend would be a far easier sell, isn't incremental.

7. To use airline anology, if it is a choice between travelling in a 650 for a decade or business class, the business class simply would not work and would be a total waste of money. I would love to say otherwise but it is what it is. In the right situation I could explain this more fully. Whether you believed it or not is clearly another matter.

8. That said, in terms of timescales once funded, while you should look a decade plus, progress should be cumulative and hence useful ongoing, and who knows there could be other Economist type moments.

9. The stuff that is in my head could give you a whole lot more to audit and verify, if you have the necessary resources.

It's in your hands. For me, given my age if it doesn't happen now, I am following PaulLs advice and moving on, and as you should know from my history when I move on I move on.



Wink
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FatPom




Joined: 26 Dec 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Christ on a fcuching bike! You know what I did this morning? Went for a beautiful open water swim with the sun poking over the trees.

We had an election, whoop de do, life rolls on the same for the vast majority of people.

Go do something nice, the world is beautiful if you stop banging your head against the wall for a second.

FP out Wink


Last edited by FatPom on Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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