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Ironman NK anyone?
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
This is already getting faintly ridiculous. The NK regime is looking to use its nuclear capability as a lever, not to try an reenact the plot of The Fourth Protocol.
fair enough Jorgan, at least that is the conventional view.

Mind you the conventional view was also that NK was years away from this stage.

Idea Twisted Evil
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems.


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife, not from an external actor. So if Trump were threatened by democrats he might instigate war on democrats.

War between nation states is most often driven by fear of attack - the US afraid of a nuclear strike, NK afraid of obliteration, SK afraid of obliteration, Japan fearful of obliteration. You've got all the fear you need. Diversion is an aside to these primary points.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife,
that's what I said?
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hammerer wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tony Stark wrote:
I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.


EJC, most of my news comes from The Economist, though have started reading South China Morning Post.

Tony:

1. It's well reported that after a surprise attack against NK, it would be difficult to stop an immediate devastating NK assault on Seoul. Assuming accurate analysis and resporting obviously.

2. What is to stop NK strapping a nuke onto a ww2 style one man mini submarine and idling its way (fuel reserves?) to Guam? Before doing a kami Kazi?


For me, the seriousness of it all aside I find it fascinating how the most excluded nation in our world seems to have outmanoeuvred global spooks.

I know how I think they have done it, and you can guess that easily without going there here. I could even, years ago now, do a PaulL and draw pictures. But hey ho no one ever listens to me.


or perhaps the worlds intelligence organisations know exactly whats going on and that is in fact very little apart from sabre rattling and pretending they have capabilities that they don't.


Intelligence isn't about knowing, it's about confidence levels.

@tony stark
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=north-korea

Even without nuclear, they can devastate SK and seriously harm Japan.
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife,
that's what I said?


If you ignore the rest of my post by clipping it out, I suppose so.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife,
that's what I said?


If you ignore the rest of my post by clipping it out, I suppose so.
ok didn't mean to obfuscate.

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?

Ok Korea might be a bad example right here and now, but back in the day...
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?




Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from insurgents harbouring in the country not directly

No ~#*$ idea why that was started...


Fear from attack doesn't have to be from the country you start the war with!
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:


Intelligence isn't about knowing, it's about confidence levels.

ok, knowing little about intelligence (control yourself Ejc Wink ) I get that.

However consider..... (bare with me here, I am not turning this into an unliked direction, but it is specifically relevant to my points, so take a deep breath and realise that I have no intentions to continue such discussions)

Assume for a moment that I am as sane as Ejc. That my wired stuff is spot on. Just assume that for a moment.

After all, even in England such things have been taught for a long long time. And our government has declassified matierial on it. No where near as much as Americas declassification I give you. But millions have been spent, a decades worth of both scientific research and military operational useage declassified.

Why? Change of power at the top, no one to champion it, a whistleblower who had a breakdown, subsequent public face issues etc etc, so you declassify and release the team. All verifiable fact.

Now back in old Blighty. Well even our establishment dabblers may treat it as a hobby (it is difficult to get reliable and useful) and with English disbelief, ridicule, and at a surface level not unreasonable mental illness assumptions aside....


Phew....my point....it would be easy to see how "confidence levels" from a UK Intelligence perspective could be high that it's all nonsense.

In NK however, kids are born into camps, highly secret camps, and if they show psychic abilities it is entirely conceivable, that knowing no different, they blindly follow all that they are told and know, and become world class intuitives.

So, in such a scenario, UK spooks could understandably have applied UK conventional wisdom (even if ignoring facts that can be verified) to what is happeneing inside NK.

Right now turn this back to nukes....it certainly seems that we got our confidence levels rather wrong on NK nuke progress.

I am just illustrating one way why we may have got those confidence levels wrong. And I did try to warn three years ago now, verifiably establishment independently, and what I knew back then could have helped prevent what is happening today.

But hey ho.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?




Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from insurgents harbouring in the country not directly

No ~#*$ idea why that was started...


Fear from attack doesn't have to be from the country you start the war with!
fair point.
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife,
that's what I said?


If you ignore the rest of my post by clipping it out, I suppose so.
ok didn't mean to obfuscate.

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?

Ok Korea might be a bad example right here and now, but back in the day...


So as much as common opinion is always right, let's take the Vietnam War. The north had already lost a lot of territory during the First Indochina war and we're basically still fighting to control all of Vietnam. The US were fighting due to the fear of the rise of global communism.

A better example for you is, IIRC Rwanda, where the incumbent leader was losing political support and instigated a campaign of ethnic hatred eventually shelling one of his own cities to justify war on the target ethnicity.

Foreign policy may well be used to influence domestic opinion polls, talk is cheap after all. However, the idea that full blown war created to win votes is just an idea, the sheer economic cost of actual war is so great it's not a rational move. If you have evidence otherwise, feel free to share.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
SGreg wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?




Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from Russia/China

Yes but from insurgents harbouring in the country not directly

No ~#*$ idea why that was started...


Fear from attack doesn't have to be from the country you start the war with!
fair point.


Regime change for Iraq
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


War is for idiots and war is usually talked up by idiots...
Or ego motivated politicians or those who require a citizens diversion from domestic problems


Not entirely true, war is more often driven by leaders afraid of losing power due to internal strife,
that's what I said?


If you ignore the rest of my post by clipping it out, I suppose so.
ok didn't mean to obfuscate.

Was America "fearing attack" from Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq when it went to war with them?

Ok Korea might be a bad example right here and now, but back in the day...


So as much as common opinion is always right, let's take the Vietnam War. The north had already lost a lot of territory during the First Indochina war and we're basically still fighting to control all of Vietnam. The US were fighting due to the fear of the rise of global communism.

A better example for you is, IIRC Rwanda, where the incumbent leader was losing political support and instigated a campaign of ethnic hatred eventually shelling one of his own cities to justify war on the target ethnicity.

Foreign policy may well be used to influence domestic opinion polls, talk is cheap after all. However, the idea that full blown war created to win votes is just an idea, the sheer economic cost of actual war is so great it's not a rational move. If you have evidence otherwise, feel free to share.

Way out on Rwanda....
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Tin Pot wrote:


Intelligence isn't about knowing, it's about confidence levels.

ok, knowing little about intelligence (control yourself Ejc Wink ) I get that.

However consider..... (bare with me here, I am not turning this into an unliked direction, but it is specifically relevant to my points, so take a deep breath and realise that I have no intentions to continue such discussions)

Assume for a moment that I am as sane as Ejc. That my wired stuff is spot on. Just assume that for a moment.

After all, even in England such things have been taught for a long long time. And our government has declassified matierial on it. No where near as much as Americas declassification I give you. But millions have been spent, a decades worth of both scientific research and military operational useage declassified.

Why? Change of power at the top, no one to champion it, a whistleblower who had a breakdown, subsequent public face issues etc etc, so you declassify and release the team. All verifiable fact.

Now back in old Blighty. Well even our establishment dabblers may treat it as a hobby (it is difficult to get reliable and useful) and with English disbelief, ridicule, and at a surface level not unreasonable mental illness assumptions aside....


Phew....my point....it would be easy to see how "confidence levels" from a UK Intelligence perspective could be high that it's all nonsense.

In NK however, kids are born into camps, highly secret camps, and if they show psychic abilities it is entirely conceivable, that knowing no different, they blindly follow all that they are told and know, and become world class intuitives.

So, in such a scenario, UK spooks could understandably have applied UK conventional wisdom (even if ignoring facts that can be verified) to what is happeneing inside NK.

Right now turn this back to nukes....it certainly seems that we got our confidence levels rather wrong on NK nuke progress.

I am just illustrating one way why we may have got those confidence levels wrong. And I did try to warn three years ago now, verifiably establishment independently, and what I knew back then could have helped prevent what is happening today.

But hey ho.


I don't think that I've never been accused of being sane
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hectorsaurus




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ironman North Korea - I'm in.

To be fair, at Israman we had the race briefing start with "If you hear artillery fire during the race, please make your way to the nearest shelter."
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hectorsaurus wrote:
Ironman North Korea - I'm in.

To be fair, at Israman we had the race briefing start with "If you hear artillery fire during the race, please make your way to the nearest shelter."


That would motivate me....

I didn't have to run as fast as some at the Kigali 10k, that's for sure.... Smile
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