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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
Posts: 16218
Location: alles was ich bin, alles was ich war

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:24 pm    Post subject: Your Kona Picks Reply with quote

I have to confess that I've not followed the pro scene as much this year; I just get out there and do my own thing. Anyway, it's a thread we should have.....

Men
Frodeno
Kienle
Sanders/Lange

Women
Ryf (really can't see past her)
and.... Embarassed

Nothing new here to be honest. Hard to see past Frodeno, and he's been ominously quiet of late, passing on the 70.3 Worlds. Kienle & Sanders are cooking on gas as usual, with only Sanders' non-wetsuit swim the question mark. If Sanders can bridge to Kinele early - all the better. I can't decide if Lange's going to be a flash in the pan after last year; sometimes someone makes the podium, only for it to be a one-time thing: think Marino V, Hoffman to-date etc. Despite his season thus far, I don't see Don being a factor past halfway on the bike in Kona. My lack of knowledge on the female field these days is perhaps also indicative of Ryf's dominance?

I would certainly like to see Frodeno put under the hammer before T2.
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JaRok2300




Joined: 01 May 2014
Posts: 186
Location: Worcester, UK

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an aside I saw a post on FB the other day saying it would televised live on RedBull TV.
Haven't looked into it any further (can't go on that site from work to look now) so don't know if that will be the same feed as Ironman or their own coverage but may be another option as the IM feed can get a bit repetitive after a while.
I too don't really follow it that closely but would like to see Frodo pushed all the way. He's a smart racer and only does enough to win so would like to see what he's (or anyone who beats him is) capable of in an ironwar type scenario.
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will be interesting to see what Sanders can do. Andy Potts is normally up there for the swim prime (second to HW last year), and LS only exited 2mins down over 3k at the ITU Long Course. Compare that to being nearly 9mins down to Potts and Frodeno in Kona last year, and the improvement he appears to have made appears legitimate.

His bike is so strong, that if he isnt having to come from that far down (and your comment about the effect of the non-wetsuit aspect would appear to be key) then he could really shake things up.

Outside of the ITU Long Course, he's put all his eggs in the Kona basket this year, ditching his original #1 aim of 70.3 Worlds, so should arrive in perfect condition. His 3rd best bike split in Penticton, by only just over 2mins, with a puncture, is impressive.
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Roscoemck




Joined: 10 Aug 2016
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Location: Glasgow

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kienle
Frodeno
Don


Maybe...................
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r0bh




Joined: 03 Aug 2005
Posts: 1584
Location: Manchester

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaRok2300 wrote:
As an aside I saw a post on FB the other day saying it would televised live on RedBull TV.


Yes, it is in the schedule on redbull.tv. Says "Tune in to www.redbull.tv/ironman for full live coverage on October 14. If you’re in the USA tune in to www.ironman.com"

My picks:

M = Frodeno, Hoffman, Kienle, Don, Cunnama.
F = Ryf, Sali, Crowley, Joyce, Cheetham.

Wild card = Lucy Charles
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmmmm.really not sure this year...i just want to see a competitive race...
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moonmonkey02




Joined: 30 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another German 123 with Frodo winning again.

Ryf completing a routine training day to a win in a stupid red bull truckers hat with no other woman in sight : who cares who comes 2nd or 3rd as they're not even in a race.

And for the ST crowd, the Saviour of Mankind the Great Lord Colonel Sanders will blow up on the run, having clawed back a 5 minute swim deficit on the bike (still not sure he's 100% legit).
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Roscoemck




Joined: 10 Aug 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST seem to be getting a bit excited about Hoffman as well this year, interesting.
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

moonmonkey02 wrote:

And for the ST crowd, the Saviour of Mankind the Great Lord Colonel Sanders will blow up on the run, having clawed back a 5 minute swim deficit on the bike (still not sure he's 100% legit).


Competitively, or otherwise? I'd genuinely liKe to see you make that ambiguous statement on ST.
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

moonmonkey02 wrote:
Another German 123 with Frodo winning again.

Ryf completing a routine training day to a win in a stupid red bull truckers hat with no other woman in sight : who cares who comes 2nd or 3rd as they're not even in a race.

And for the ST crowd, the Saviour of Mankind the Great Lord Colonel Sanders will blow up on the run, having clawed back a 5 minute swim deficit on the bike (still not sure he's 100% legit).


I'd guess that the 10 or so ladies in with a podium shot or even if a win (admittedly if Ryf has a bad day, mechanical etc) would probably disagree with your statement there; but hey, that's really insightful.
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 953

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Frodo
Been quiet, but has been putting the yakka in.
http://www.tri2b.com/medien/bilder/detail/galleries/11/gallery/kona-2017-prerace-jan-frodeno-rockt-den-highway-19/

2. Kienle

3. Hoffman

Nilsson wildcard to run onto the podium. Lange would have been a very interesting factor but I think too much injury downtime this year.

Apparently ST's hero Sanders is going to get out of the water a minute behind Kienle, bridge up to the Sebi train, work with Kienle to catch Frodo, gap Frodo by T2 and have enough left to prevail in a brutal slugfest of a run....

If he gets out a minute behind Kienle he's done IMO, the effort to bridge to Sebi (who himself will be burning matches on the chase to the lead packs) will cook his race.

It's going to be a routine win for Frodo unless someone gets in the Frodo bike pack whose run he genuinely fears.
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Ryf
2. Daylight
3. More daylight.

That 70.3 WC performance was an utter clinic, front pack swim then biking away from a train of the next dozen or so best bikers by 8 minutes into T2, followed be a relaxed training run.
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As with Jorgan, i'm unsure as to whether Lange last year was a fluke or not.

Frodeno
Sebi
Hoffman
Cunnama
Nilsson

Ryf
Sali
Jackson
Joyce
Hauschildt
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I'm detecting that the female race lacks the prestige of the men's; is that becuase it's seen as a foregone conclusion, and there's no fierce competition? Tbh, I think the female field historically lacks a real competitive depth at Kona. Yes, there are the meltdowns, but there simply isn't the toe-to-toe you regularly see in the men's race from the gun to well into the run.

There are definitely parallels between the CW & Ryf eras; except Ryf doesn't have to play catch-up on the bike. Sutto has created a couple of machines, that have no peers.
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gingerbongo




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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

See i think the race behind Ryf will be exciting in itself. Quite a few athletes vowing for those positions. The problem is their unlikely to get any airtime, so we won't actually see that 'race within a race' unfolding.
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