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Brexit - seeing it from the other perspective
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Gus




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
I'd be grateful to know from any leavers on here, their perception of how the EU has made our lives in the U.K. worse over the last 40 years than if we had never joined. Serious question. No biff intended. Educate me.


More money firstly in our own economy, secondly more accountability of our politicians enacting laws we want and not what some Belgian wants and thirdly a far more dynamic economy not encumbered by EU Trade Policy which has resulted in no significant Trade Agreements in the last decade.

And the joy of watching Belgium disappear into complete and utter obscurity.

Its not so much as 'making things worse' but of not actually making anything much better for the vast sums of money we pay in. There's very little economic value in paying for Romanian roads, or Italian peach farmers, or the French CAP payments, or protection of Greek olive oil from the superior Turkish version - all of which increase the cost to UK consumers. The EU is a horrendously expensive body which can rarely ever be said to be economic.

Under the old EEC people could still come here and work with permission first, but couldnt claim benefits of any kind and had no right to reside. That gave us a flexible workforce without using up all out housing stock when the rest of Europe sends its surplus workers to the UK. We still export our elderly to Spain but the difference is they take their money with them to Spain - not go to live off Spain.

Because thats the primary effect of free movement - countries have been unwilling to reform their economies and have been let off the hook as their brightest have been able to leave and their country gradually goes into decline along with the overpopulated countries which were successful but are now burdened with supporting half of Europe.

Turning the question around, what have the EU ever done that the Uk couldnt have done on its own?


And just one relatively small example (but massive up here) - we get to fish our own waters again and get to stop the Spanish and every other chancer from raping our stocks. The British fishing industry has been decimated over the last few decades - yes because of declining fish stocks - driven primarily by overfishing by...? Yep.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus wrote:

And just one relatively small example (but massive up here) - we get to fish our own waters again and get to stop the Spanish and every other chancer from raping our stocks. The British fishing industry has been decimated over the last few decades - yes because of declining fish stocks - driven primarily by overfishing by...? Yep.


On the flip side of that, isn't Grimsby very worried about their fish exports being sat in EU customs and subject to tariffs. Hence wanting special dispensation Rolling Eyes

Although we don't know what trade agreemments will be drawn-up yet.
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Gus




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Although we don't know what trade agreememnts will be drawn-up yet.


I think that really sums up any possible discussion about anything to do with Brexit really now! Everyone (on both sides) is just angrily speculating.
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tin pot




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
Although we don't know what trade agreememnts will be drawn-up yet.


I think that really sums up any possible discussion about anything to do with Brexit really now! Everyone (on both sides) is just angrily speculating.

I will speculate - not so angrily, and not so wildly - that whatever agreements are made, no one will be happy.

Remainders will blame leavers, and leavers will blame May.
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user134098




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
Wheezy wrote:
We'll set our own tariffs for trade, goods and services.


Did you know that half the cost of a tin of peaches (Good old Del Monte) is an EU import tax ...


Can you explain this please, it looks a little muddled. There are no import taxes for goods within the single market - that's pretty much the whole point of it. I'm sure you meant to say something else?
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The import of peaches into the EU is subject to a tariff of 40-50% so the small, ineffective and pointless Italian peach industry survives by charging inflated prices inside the EU because its effective opposition cannot import into the EU without having to add a 40-50% premium. Prices inside the EU are artificially high.

So simply put, we pay nearly twice as much for peaches as we should, because the EU keeps prices artificially high to protect a dead industry that nobody but a few Italians care about.

Then multiply that by just about every foodstuff we use in the EU and if we did away with the tariffs, we could source our foods far more cheaply and at the same time help developing countries to grow their exports into the EU. All those who would lose out world be farmers who simply cannot compete on the scale or effectiveness of huge developing countries with larger scale agriculture.

But instead, the EU forces us to pay hugely inflated food prices to protect dead and inefficient European agriculture businesses, and at the same time, keep developing countries from developing, my crating huge barriers to trade for them.

The CAP has to die and once we are out of the EU, our food will be much cheaper as we can source it from all over the world and build relationships with other countries who would love access to our market. Instead, the Eu protects its farmers at the expense of 300 million overcharged Europeans.
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the_exile




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:

I will speculate - not so angrily, and not so wildly - that whatever agreements are made, no one will be happy.

Remainders will blame leavers, and leavers will blame May.


Agreed. There are so many different reasons why people want to leave it will be impossible to satisfy all.

As mentioned previously I voted remain, but until about a fortnight prior to the vote had been on the leave side. My reason for switching was that the fallout to get out would not be worth while in the end as where we would end up would not be what I had hoped. I would consider myself a reluctant remainer.

A low regulation, low tax economy on the edge of the EU, better trade agreements with the rest of the world etc, etc, etc. That was what I wanted, but it will never happen.

The view I had was shared by very few - probably some of the very vocal high profile leavers, but over all very few none the less. It as a naieve utopian view that would never be reality.

Getting rid of immigration doesn't appeal to me in the slightest, I would rather 100 migrants who want to work than one lazy workshy Brit. Perhaps we could set up an exchange scheme, only nobody would want them.

£350m for the NHS - again, not fussed. However I do think this was very clever, when the figure got banded about and denied by remainers and they said that it was actually "only" £250m or whatever it wwas all it did was confirm lots of money got spent each week. Even though about £15b is spent by central government each week and £350m or indeed £250m is not a huge amount relatively it did drum into many peoples' heads every day that it costs lots of money.

Overall I don't think the outcome will be that bad in the end, but strong remainers will think it is a disaster and strong leavers will think it is a disgrace.


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user134098




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

18.4% apparently, 7.5% from SA
https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/2008709817

But you make a good case for why tarrifs are generally a bad idea - local protectionism for one industry generally creates a cost for others as part of any deal
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who buys tinned peaches anyway? The 1950s ended a very long time ago.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
Although we don't know what trade agreememnts will be drawn-up yet.


I think that really sums up any possible discussion about anything to do with Brexit really now! Everyone (on both sides) is just angrily speculating.


not sure i've ever angrily speculated...but pre referendum i asked a similar question for the benefits of being in the EU to be highlighted and didn't hear a peep...lots of speculation about why we shouldn't leave, of course, which is different..
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tin pot




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
The import of peaches into the EU is subject to a tariff of 40-50% so the small, ineffective and pointless Italian peach industry survives by charging inflated prices inside the EU because its effective opposition cannot import into the EU without having to add a 40-50% premium. Prices inside the EU are artificially high.

So simply put, we pay nearly twice as much for peaches as we should, because the EU keeps prices artificially high to protect a dead industry that nobody but a few Italians care about.

Then multiply that by just about every foodstuff we use in the EU and if we did away with the tariffs, we could source our foods far more cheaply and at the same time help developing countries to grow their exports into the EU. All those who would lose out world be farmers who simply cannot compete on the scale or effectiveness of huge developing countries with larger scale agriculture.

But instead, the EU forces us to pay hugely inflated food prices to protect dead and inefficient European agriculture businesses, and at the same time, keep developing countries from developing, my crating huge barriers to trade for them.

The CAP has to die and once we are out of the EU, our food will be much cheaper as we can source it from all over the world and build relationships with other countries who would love access to our market. Instead, the Eu protects its farmers at the expense of 300 million overcharged Europeans.


Admit it.

You’ve never even bought a tin of peaches!
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Wheezy




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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The frustration for me is that as a remainer, I do realise that the EU is far from perfect. If there was even some conciliatory talk, I would be prepared to listen. All I've heard is how easy it will be and how good it will be when clearly, there will be many great challenges in the years ahead.

Graham, I don't doubt your peaches example and I am sure there are many more. But for every one of those situations there is probably a similar situation where British business has benefited too. It just does not make sense to me that we are leaving the largest trading bloc in the world only to attempt to basically rejoin it on our terms. It seems more likely that we will be leaving the customs union and single market and once that happens we are going to be inundated with red tape; red tape that will increase the prices of goods. Customs checks, product documentation etc. Infrastructure that we don't have, will cost millions to implement and staff. It has not even been planned as far as we know, let alone put in place. Know wonder the car industry with its JIT delivery systems is at best, worried about the next few years. Yes, we can then set up free trade deals with other nations, but trade generally works best when you are close to the people you are trading with. Distance, Time zones, oceans; all these things are barriers to trade and usually increase costs. And yet, we have a group of countries literally in our back garden and we are choosing to make trade with them more difficult and potentially more expensive.

Ok, I'm not an economist and I could be very, very wrong. So let's suppose that the issue of trade will be better for us leaving the EU and we achieve this low tax, low tariff, low regulation panacea. In my opinion, Immigration and the skilled and unskilled workforce that we benefit from has greatly improved our country. It will effect many industries and occupations, not just fruit picking. We've got a rescue cat (stay with me here!) and he's been to the vet, a lot. I should say vets, as he's seen 5, 3 of whom are from the EU. But it's not just the vets that look after pets and zoo animals that come to our shores. There are vetinary roles in abattoirs and other points in the food chain that ensure that animal welfare standards are met and that livestock is slaughtered safely and hygienically. This work is not as glamorous or well paid as high street vets and therefore has traditionally been done with more immigrant labour. These are the types of jobs, skilled and educated roles where we could find it very hard to recruit.

In science and technology, are our universities going to continue to be world leaders if they are not getting the EU grants they receive for funding and the free movement of scientists, technicians and engineers who work and study in them? Surely, acts like the European Medicines Agency, for example should serve as a warning sign to us that we could end up with a brain drain that sees our ability to lead in science and tech to be greatly diminished. Who is going to make up the funding gap? I suppose private business will but surely, they will go where the brains are, and if they are not here anymore.....

Ultimately, its not any one thing like trade, politics, immigration or jobs. Its ideology and that's what makes Brexit such a sh1tshow. It's whether we believe as individuals that as a nation we are better in the club or better off out of it and most of us, Brexiteers or Remainers are pretty set in our views. We need a government that can try to find some sort of middle ground and unfortunately, the current one doesn't seem to have a clue.

That's me done. I've said my bit.

Peace.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There were a great many challenges to staying in, such as watching it/us become a federation, the lack of accountability, the lack of democracy.

It certainly will cost millions to get through the red tape of setting up new trade deals. However it currently costs us millions to have access to the so called "free trade". I am always astonished at how slow off the mark people can be in calling it free trade. I am also astounded at how the politicians get away with calling it that without being called out.

Yes, our immigration policy has been successful in strip mining the world of its talent. That will, I'm sure, come back to bite us, not least because it leaves poorer countries without the cream of the crop. It has also come at a cost, of course, that of unchecked immigration both from refugees and economic migrants. Whilst a percentage of these go on to contribute, a percentage of these go on to join the black economy and a percentage of these go on to claim handouts. Whatever the status, each of these needs housing, feeding, schooling and medical care. I look at the pressure on the NHS or schools or housing and somehow the sums don't add up.

It the car industry has to do sonething other than JIT, then I think the world can cope. They perhaps may have to put their hands in their pockets rather than passing the costs to the supplier.

Certainly the universities will suffer if the EU doesn't give them any of their hard earned money. Oh no, that's right, the EU doesn't have any money. We give them money so they can administer it, for a fee, and pass it on to the universities. Can no one else see the problem here?

But yes, you are correct, it is the ideology of the EU that has made it such a sh1t show. When encouraged to reform they told us to fek off, when urged to reform, the told us to fek off, when threatened to reform they told us to fek off. They are a bit more than the playground bully; more like a gang leader. You can only join the gang on their terms and no one must ever leave the gang or they will make life hard for you. I remain astonished that people still want to be a part of this - the blinkers must be quite broad.

Just think what they could have achieved in all this time with all that money...
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GrahamO




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
The frustration for me is that as a remainer, I do realise that the EU is far from perfect. ................. That's me done. I've said my bit.

Peace.


1. There is no necessity to have the EU to be in a free trade area so you conflate two unrelated issues. The Uk could undoubtedly benefit from free trade but the Brussels bureaucracy is not required to achieve this. For example, we could join NAFTA, but that wouldnt mean we would be run by the USA.

2. The EU is not a trading bloc - its a free trade exclusion zone where we can only have trade agreements with countries the Brussels decide we can and we cannot make agreements with anyone else. All the good imports we could benefit from are excluded or highly tariff'd because somewhere insiode the bloc, there is a business to be protected from the reality that they are inefficient and should be bankrupt. To re-iterate my previous point, the EU has achieved no trading agreements with the top 10 countries in the world in its history - because it tries to tell others how to run their countries as a prerequisite.

3. The Uk got on just fine without the EU and customs worked quite well without the EU. people here are often unable to comprehend there was life before the EU as thats all they know. If you look at where the growth in world trade is going to come from over the next 50 years, its not the EU as thats dying. The fact is we already have these systems for our non-EU trade and we will need them anyway so its something your generation is gong to have to live with regardless. You make it sound as if we never had customs and have no ability to do it. Millions to implement, jobs created snd saves billions in money not handed to the EU for OUR import/exports.

4. Methinks you protest too much about the relationship with Europe. Once the Brussels parasites are out of the way, the countries of the EU will come to a sensinble conclusion as they too will need to set up customs etc as they will want access to our markets. You imagine that BMW will walk away from 25% of the revenue because of some paperwork ? !

5. the fruit pickers can come, just like they did before. Except they won't be able to claim benefits and they won't have the right to reside in public housing. That will solve a lot of the UK housing shortages. Those who do come to work in 'professional jobs' can rent and buy as before. They can even get citizenship IF they have skills and qualifications the country needs and are not just escaping unemployment in the EU with useless degrees. And you and I might have to clean our own cars, or use a car wash rather than use the unemployed of eastern Europe. You're doing the usual Remainer thing of thinking that an EU national can only do certain jobs. If there is a shortage, then they will be welcomed in, but not to live off the State.

6. EU grants come from UK money - how many Remainers keep throwing up this kind of BS ? There will be MORE money for UK industry and science for things we want as a country to spend money on - not on what the Eu decide to spend our contributions on in other parts of Europe. Honestly, this kind of blinkered response from you is really worrying. You're one of the may who actually think we don't give the EU money to give back to us. You actually think the EU is a source of funding.

Personally, my head says stay, but my heart says leave but the level of naive dependency of the Remainers was enough to make me to vote to leave. The UK is and was a great nation and the EU is going to collapse into a protectionist bureaucracy in the next decade and I'd rather be out of the tent p*ssing into it than on the inside of a cartel which is going to be so inefficient it'll make the Weimar look efficient. Being big won't protect the EU as its nigh on impossible for it to make any efficiency improvements as there's always a grasping hand wanting protection from the 21st century. China and India are going to eat the Eu alive over the next decade as the EU tries to hang onto a dwindling export component while the others pour their imports into the EU ensuring the EU never gets to change.

IMO, Germany will leave in 5 years as it'll be the only one funding the rest of Europes hopeless dependent countries.
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Wheezy




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I just guess we will have to come back in 30 years' time and see.

Can we at least agree on tubs vs clinchers Graham? Smile
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