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Referendum 2: The return of the #@?#
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I dont think that no deal will happen: there would be a vote of no confidence in the government, some remain Tories will support the vote in order to prevent No Deal and there will be a GE. Article 50 will be withdrawn or postponed while the elections are held. The key point about the election will be what type of Brexit do we want. In this scenario, I would even contemplate supporting JC if he offers a moderate view of Brexit or a new referendum, because on balance I think that JC would be a lesser disaster than a hard Brexit

Before people start spouting on about WTO rules, maybe they should have a look at what they are. And a disorderly Brexit would be an utter, unmittigated disaster, and at this late stage, any Hard Brexit would be disorderly, there simply is not enough time to sort it out

The more I look at it, the more I think that we need a Norway Plus solution, we would then be in a shared EU trading arrangement with Norway
and Switzerland (if they will have us).... unfortunately we will still need to accept free movement, but look at how Norway and Switzerland manage that aspect too, it is not so free
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:

we are close to a no deal exit...which of the 27 members will benefit from that?


Are we really? I think that there is a majority in parliament who will do whatever it takes to stop a no deal Brexit
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Wheezy




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:

Before people start spouting on about WTO rules, maybe they should have a look at what they are. And a disorderly Brexit would be an utter, unmittigated disaster, and at this late stage, any Hard Brexit would be disorderly, there simply is not enough time to sort it out


No western developed economy trades on WTO rules alone. This is quite a good read on what it could potentially mean.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean.pdf
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
explorerJC wrote:

we are close to a no deal exit...which of the 27 members will benefit from that?


Are we really? I think that there is a majority in parliament who will do whatever it takes to stop a no deal Brexit


like accept May's proposal?
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
I dont think that no deal will happen: there would be a vote of no confidence in the government, some remain Tories will support the vote in order to prevent No Deal and there will be a GE. Article 50 will be withdrawn or postponed while the elections are held. The key point about the election will be what type of Brexit do we want. In this scenario, I would even contemplate supporting JC if he offers a moderate view of Brexit or a new referendum, because on balance I think that JC would be a lesser disaster than a hard Brexit



Corbyn's opportunity is here now...and he hasn't taken it because who ever delivers brexit (or not as the case may be) will be dead in the water...i assume that he is waiting until it is all over.

As for his ability to lead...i wouldn't put his top team in charge of a parish council....
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
mattsurf wrote:
explorerJC wrote:

we are close to a no deal exit...which of the 27 members will benefit from that?


Are we really? I think that there is a majority in parliament who will do whatever it takes to stop a no deal Brexit


like accept May's proposal?


Unfortunately Labour won't support as they want to force a GE. In the best interest of the country, I wish that they would support it.

Initially tt may not be a brilliant deal, however, I think that with time, it could be shaped to be much better
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
mattsurf wrote:
explorerJC wrote:

we are close to a no deal exit...which of the 27 members will benefit from that?


Are we really? I think that there is a majority in parliament who will do whatever it takes to stop a no deal Brexit


like accept May's proposal?


Unfortunately Labour won't support as they want to force a GE. In the best interest of the country, I wish that they would support it.

Initially tt may not be a brilliant deal, however, I think that with time, it could be shaped to be much better


compared to the other options, it is probably as good as it gets although the real pain will still be to come, I'm sure...

Corbyn doesn't want an election yet...he wants out of the EU but, doesn't want to be seen to be responsible for it...
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard Brexit followed by Corbyn is possibly the worst scenario immaginable.

I agree that the TM deal maybe the best we will get. Even though I am a remain supporter, abandoning Brexit entirely will create divisions for generations
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GrahamO




Joined: 10 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheezy wrote:
No western developed economy trades on WTO rules alone.


True but then again, no economy has decided to unhitch itself from a dying bloc before. A typical Remain attempt to mix causation and correlation.

Its like the f*ckwit Millennials that point out that those who voted Remain didnt have degrees and they did so they are smarter. The halfwits don't realise that university wasnt an option for many of older age and that they themselves only got to university because the access bar was lowered by Labour to keep morons like them off the dole queue.

Wheezy wrote:
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean.pdf[


Left wing think tank populated by a load of Europeans desperate for the UK to continue its contributions, and tio send EU students to its members. All academics who have never actually worked for a living in industry.

I predict a No Deal Brexit because no politician will want to sign up to being under the control of Drunker and the rest of parasites for decades.

Anyone who votes for Mays deal will be political toast - easy to point out they voted to be run by Germany thereby undoing the efforts of 1939-1945.

Its much easier to say nobody wants the EU to have sole control of the UK and so Mays poor negotiations resulted in the only possible option, so it will be rejected.

Then we can start reminding all the whining Remainers about their horror story of the high cost of travelling in Europe post-Brexit - 7 for three years FFS.

OTOH, a complete clear out of every politician who said they would vote to surrender the Uk wouldn't actually be a bad thing - think of all the waster politicians who would ignore their constituents and be thrown out of office.
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Tigger




Joined: 25 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you have time to read it, this is interesting.

But if you just want to go ad hominem then go for it...
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:

Its like the f*ckwit Millennials that point out that those who voted Remain didnt have degrees and they did so they are smarter. The halfwits don't realise that university wasnt an option for many of older age and that they themselves only got to university because the access bar was lowered by Labour to keep morons like them off the dole queue.


If you're going to call people f*ckwits, halfwits and morons maybe you should read through your posts more thoroughly before you hit submit; not only would they make better sense, but it might give you a moment's pause to consider whether so many insults in one short paragraph might make you look a bit bellicose.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tigger wrote:
If you have time to read it, this is interesting.

But if you just want to go ad hominem then go for it...


Interesting read - as far as i got, but work must prevail today...however, i wouldn't expect a former ambassador to offer a balanced view...therefore, i have picked out two early points:


And I have still yet to meet the senior person in any capital who wants to give Member States the right to impose numerical controls on free movement rights.

perhaps not, but, as we are experiencing across the world currently, the senior people are not really understanding of current affairs, particularly those which posed most of the dissent against the EU in ireland, france, holland and now the uk...

Frictionless trade comes with free movement. And with the European Court of Justice

and this is only the case if your ideology insists on it...but it comes with a massive flaw...
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Tigger




Joined: 25 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
Tigger wrote:
... But if you just want to go ad hominem then go for it...


Interesting read - as far as i got ... however, i wouldn't expect a former ambassador to offer a balanced view


Glad you went for it.
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Pedro Peru




Joined: 19 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
GrahamO wrote:

Its like the f*ckwit Millennials that point out that those who voted Remain didnt have degrees and they did so they are smarter. The halfwits don't realise that university wasnt an option for many of older age and that they themselves only got to university because the access bar was lowered by Labour to keep morons like them off the dole queue.


If you're going to call people f*ckwits, halfwits and morons maybe you should read through your posts more thoroughly before you hit submit; not only would they make better sense, but it might give you a moment's pause to consider whether so many insults in one short paragraph might make you look a bit bellicose.

might?
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
Tigger wrote:
If you have time to read it, this is interesting.

But if you just want to go ad hominem then go for it...


Interesting read - as far as i got, but work must prevail today...however, i wouldn't expect a former ambassador to offer a balanced view...therefore, i have picked out two early points:


And I have still yet to meet the senior person in any capital who wants to give Member States the right to impose numerical controls on free movement rights.

perhaps not, but, as we are experiencing across the world currently, the senior people are not really understanding of current affairs, particularly those which posed most of the dissent against the EU in ireland, france, holland and now the uk...

Frictionless trade comes with free movement. And with the European Court of Justice

and this is only the case if your ideology insists on it...but it comes with a massive flaw...


It would be easy to dismiss this as article as another example of project fear... however, I felt that it was a well constructed arguement, and reflects the genuine fears of someone who has a massive amount of experience in this field.

EJC, there is a lot of anger in Europe about immigrants, however, it is almost all about non EU immigrants, it is only in the UK where we have an issue with immigrants from Eastern Europe

Ivan Rogers does make the point that the ECJ goes far beyond free trade, however, I agree with him that Frictionless trade does come with the ECJ. He also makes a very fair point that it is the UK that wants to exit, therefore why should the EU change its fundamental principles, it gets zero benefit from doing so

I think that what we are seeing is the best negotiating team on the plannet brokering an agreement with a bunch of plucky amateurs.

I believe that Ivan is actually saying that an unnegotiated hard Brexit would not be unattractive for the EU as it puts them in a far stronger position for phase 2 of the negotiations
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