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VLM 2019
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1079
Location: High Peak

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FatPom wrote:
Whisk wrote:
SGreg wrote:
I Noticed there is a 1000 Extra places for those who donate their entry fee. I wonder what the odds are of this is? As I how many people think 35+ is worth a hoody for a race they aren't doing?


Maybe I'm just a Londoner with money to burn, but I assumed that most people treated the entry fee as a sunk cost and donated the fee to charity if they didn't get in Rolling Eyes Wink

You see a hell of a lot of the RideLondon consolation tops out on the roads around London and Surrey.


I didn't pay anything today, did I do something wrong?

TBH, I didn't even know it was open, a couple of guys at work were entering and mentioned it.


No, its optional.

You have the choice of either donating your entry fee if you fail to get in or not. In the past it has not made any difference to your chances of getting in (Allegedly) But this time there was 1000 extra places just for the people who donated.

If you don't get in and have donated you get a hoody or jacket or something. If you haven't you get a magazine.

I assumed almost no one actually donated 35 for basically nothing when the option not to was so obvious and easy. I guess that's maybe because I'm a tight northerner ?

I was just wondering weather the extra 1000 places were worth the money or if it's just as unlikely....
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
Posts: 1858

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
FatPom wrote:
Whisk wrote:
SGreg wrote:
I Noticed there is a 1000 Extra places for those who donate their entry fee. I wonder what the odds are of this is? As I how many people think 35+ is worth a hoody for a race they aren't doing?


Maybe I'm just a Londoner with money to burn, but I assumed that most people treated the entry fee as a sunk cost and donated the fee to charity if they didn't get in Rolling Eyes Wink

You see a hell of a lot of the RideLondon consolation tops out on the roads around London and Surrey.


I didn't pay anything today, did I do something wrong?

TBH, I didn't even know it was open, a couple of guys at work were entering and mentioned it.


No, its optional.

You have the choice of either donating your entry fee if you fail to get in or not. In the past it has not made any difference to your chances of getting in (Allegedly) But this time there was 1000 extra places just for the people who donated.

If you don't get in and have donated you get a hoody or jacket or something. If you haven't you get a magazine.

I assumed almost no one actually donated 35 for basically nothing when the option not to was so obvious and easy. I guess that's maybe because I'm a tight northerner ?

I was just wondering weather the extra 1000 places were worth the money or if it's just as unlikely....

That's been an option at least for the last four years. The only time I entered the ballot was for 2016, and it was an option then with the chance of additional ballot spots for those that did donate.

Maybe I'm a tight Londoner, but I didn't bother. Rather than seeing it as a donation to charity/sunk cost, I just saw it as paying 35 for a top for a race that I was highly likely not going to run. I hardly wear free stuff from races I have done, let alone something for one I haven't. I had no interest in the free top.
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smitters




Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Posts: 1746
Location: Enjoying my new favourite run

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They offered the pay-fee and get into a second ballot option last year. I went for it because I wanted the extra 0.00000001% chance and the top looked nice. I'll be honest, the charity donation was secondary to my thinking.

This year, it's a waterproof. I already own a really good one, and because the extra 1000 places didn't work out last time, I left it this time. I'll happily donate money throughout the year anyway, so I don't feel I'm letting down the poor children/animals/hungry/poorly (delete as appropriate).

I noticed a bunch of questions this year I didn't remember before. Not sure why it matters if I'm white British or purple Martian, but I'd be a little disgruntled if there was a profile applied to the race entry and thus (being white, British, male and aiming for 3.45) I'm even more unlikely to get a place.

Another forumite I know was a little creative with his answers, so I guess we'll see.

As for there being other marathons, yes there are. I don't want to PB at London, I'd like to run it to experience it, the same way I'd like to experience the fjords of Norway or Mardi Gras. I think that approach is allowed.
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
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Location: High Peak

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I too have a friend who may have been liberal with his ethnic identity.

I hope it's just for profiling but you never really know do you.

But even if he gets in and I don't it doesn't really prove anything, luck is luck ...
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
Posts: 8652
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The whole balloting process for VLM and RideLondon is very opaque. I'd be interested to know how many places are actually available and what your numerical chances are of getting in. Presumably less than 1 in 5.

I assume there must be some sort of model behind the process and it's not completely random. I would guess that there must be some bias towards people with a faster estimated time to offset the large number of charity runners expecting to go 4+ hours.

RideLondon seems to be biased in favour of women and people from outside of London. I know very few women who've not got a place through the ballot and I've got male friends from outside London who get a place every year. Conversely, I know plenty of London/Surrey-based MAMILs who get rejected every time. I guess they are trying to improve their male/female participation ratio and it probably gets local business on side if they can say that a large proportion of participants are spending money in hotels and restaurants over the weekend Wink
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1079
Location: High Peak

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Think they got around 350,000 ballot entries for around 22,000 places.

so 15-1

This is just a vague memory from the race commentary this year.

I only tried once for Ride London and didn't get in. Turns out I couldn't have done it anyway as I only have a TT
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FatPom




Joined: 26 Dec 2005
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks all, makes sense Cool

I never answer any ethnicity questions on any form. I also didn't answer any of the questions about my preferred brands (read their targeted marketing campaigns).

can't imagine why I won't get in Very Happy
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hammerer
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Joined: 19 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only time I got a ballot spot was when i put my predicted time as 3:10. I have been more "honest" ever since (3:45-4hrs) and never got in. Ive been a bit more generous with my predicted time this year. Im not sure a 2:59 is possible in a year but who knows Wink
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tommy060289




Joined: 08 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Think they got around 350,000 ballot entries for around 22,000 places


I just googled average finish time and the first link that came up was to the Mirror. Not the best information source but says

"386,050 applicants tried out for 2018 race - the most ever"

Not sure how many ballot places there were but I imagine this year will be even more as all the GFA's panic apply as an extra chance in case they miss the cut off.
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t1mmy




Joined: 22 Oct 2014
Posts: 103

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I got in through the ballot in 2017 at the second time of trying. I went with a predicted time of 4 hours.

In the ballot again, I really enjoyed the race last time.
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
Posts: 8652
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tommy060289 wrote:
Quote:
Think they got around 350,000 ballot entries for around 22,000 places


I just googled average finish time and the first link that came up was to the Mirror. Not the best information source but says

"386,050 applicants tried out for 2018 race - the most ever"

Not sure how many ballot places there were but I imagine this year will be even more as all the GFA's panic apply as an extra chance in case they miss the cut off.


Jeez, those aren't good odds Shocked That would be why they stopped the "5 rejections and in" policy Wink

I could be wrong, but I'm sure the ballot entries were limited to something like 120,000 entries when they first went electronic. The first year they opened entries for the next year's race while the live TV coverage was still on and there was uproar because the entries had sold out before many of the people doing the race had got home and had an opportunity to put an entry in Rolling Eyes
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SGreg




Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1079
Location: High Peak

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep that's why they changed it.

I remember the rush to enter when they opened on Monday morning, but people complained they missed out. That was when I got in. Since the change to a full week and as many as want to can enter, not a sniff.

Oh well. Just glad I have got the chance, it's a hell of an experience.

I've done plenty of marathons and enjoyed them all but London is incredible. Only comparable to the other BIG city marathons.
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smitters




Joined: 27 Aug 2009
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Location: Enjoying my new favourite run

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the five year thing had grown to a position where in two to three years time they were not going to need a ballot, as they made good on their promise to everyone! So, instead of making good and then scrapping it, they just scrapped it. I was another one on my fourth year, IIRC. Maybe third year, but whatever, I was pretty annoyed.

Agree on the opacity, but then on the other hand, it is a massive money-making machine and although you'd (or maybe I'd) like to think it wasn't discriminatory to the mid-pack white male, to some degree it has to be, or the logistics would be impossible to manage. You need the 6 hour plus entrants or the course would be overwhelmed. Doesn't make me feel any less aggrieved, but on a base level I get it. Just not on an emotional level!
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tommy060289 wrote:
Not sure how many ballot places there were but I imagine this year will be even more as all the GFA's panic apply as an extra chance in case they miss the cut off.

You make an interesting point here, and it could cause ballot entries to balloon.

Firstly, because the stated targets have reduced, more people will be without a GFA time.

Added to that, in the past, if you achieved the GFA targets, you knew you were in. The ballot entry form even stated something like "if you have a GFA time you must not apply via the ballot". Now, with the cap on numbers and the "cull" that will no doubt come meaning you have to be a certain amount of time under your stated qualifying time (like at Boston), they surely can't prevent potential GFA rejects from entering the ballot. Otherwise, someone could be left in the position of missing the GFA cut, and not having their hat in the ring for the general ballot. I guess they could introduce something along the lines of any GFA entries that miss the cut are automatically entered into the general ballot? That way they can at least keep a lid on the same person entering via multiple avenues, which would surely create extra admin and confusion.
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Doca




Joined: 27 Feb 2014
Posts: 226

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They are advising all GFA applicants withing 5 mins under the GFA time to also apply via the ballot.
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