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Trump - the beginning of the end?
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
Russia is being slowly strangled by an ever increasing dependence upon oil, and when Putin goes, the place will descend into anarchy with little regard to the West.


Have to agree. A huge country dependent on oil revenue, led by an Autocrat - how wrong can it go.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A thread about Trump hijacked by Russia!

You couldn't make it up. Laughing
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 scheds wrote:
A thread about Trump hijacked by Russia!

You couldn't make it up. Laughing


The SVR have a car parked outside the Nursery; they made me do it.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Russia you have to look at the subtleties.

1. They do appear to be very good at getting their hooks into people of influence. Always have been. If all your MPs or MEPs etc shout « how high » when reminded of the dirt on them, then it is not that difficult to influence another nation.

2. Russian ravens may be just as active as swallows. Can only wonder how many prominent folk they get to through their daughters and sons.

3. If I can spot that Russia has a very real opportunity to grasp international prestige and influence due to the failings of the EU, in this time of rapidly shifting power balance between the US and China, then it is you know possible that Russia have also noted the opportunity. I mean even Macron is now talking about working with Russia.

And let’s face it you can’t blame Russia for wanting to regain some of what it has lost.

I just wish that Britain was less wonky, and that the EU were in a better position to inspire. Why? When America wakes up and realises that it is the has-been the Thucydides trap is likely to hit hard, and that could be quite unstabling globally as China calmly continues to gain influence in all spheres.

I have said it before we need an effective third balance to help global security. Ideally it would be the EU. If not Russia needs to grasp the role. So my, and now Macrons, view of an informal working arrangement between the EU and Russia, may be the most stabilising, in this uncharted time. Fraught with problems obviously.

But unless the EU learns how to inspire hearts fast, globally, then what other option is there? Let Russia act as stabiliser? It’s just a pity that Britain is rapidly becoming irrelevant in such global matters (City of London aside obviously). I mean we are happy to inject fear into our own citizens, so what hope do we have of inspiring globally? Not much.

At least Macron seems to recognise the problem and seems to be trying to do something about it.
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Why? When America wakes up and realises that it is the has-been the Thucydides trap is likely to hit hard


To Paraphrase,

I think the rumors of the USA's demise have been greatly exaggerated?


No Doubt there is a shift but it's still firmly in the USA court by GDP Amounts of 7-8 Trillion Dollars!!! ($19tr vs $12tr ... approx) That's over 10% of the world economy and means China has to grow it's economy by over 50% while the USA Remains Stagnant.

I think we are still Decades away from any major shift.

And that's before we look at the really overwhelming differences in Military power...10 Nimitz class Nuclear Aircraft carriers really do allow a lot of projection of power when needed!
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Whisk




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think that Trump's impetuosity and lack of diplomacy is helping matters. He's upset a lot of his traditional allies like Canada and France and his current stance towards Turkey runs the risk of pushing them out of NATO and towards Russia.

There was a question earlier in the thread about whether America would still be the "leader of the free world". I think they'll have the biggest economy and the strongest military for some time to come, but the "America First" doctrine weakens any claim to be doing things for the greater good. Just look at climate change, where coal miners in the US are prioritised over people elsewhere in the world where rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions are impacting them.
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whisk wrote:
I don't think that Trump's impetuosity and lack of diplomacy is helping matters. He's upset a lot of his traditional allies like Canada and France and his current stance towards Turkey runs the risk of pushing them out of NATO and towards Russia.

There was a question earlier in the thread about whether America would still be the "leader of the free world". I think they'll have the biggest economy and the strongest military for some time to come, but the "America First" doctrine weakens any claim to be doing things for the greater good. Just look at climate change, where coal miners in the US are prioritised over people elsewhere in the world where rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions are impacting them.


Like Florida and California!

Trump's strategies are not even coherent enough to make sense in America let alone globally!

But we only have 2-6 years tops of this imbecile...
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
Why? When America wakes up and realises that it is the has-been the Thucydides trap is likely to hit hard


To Paraphrase,

I think the rumors of the USA's demise have been greatly exaggerated?


No Doubt there is a shift but it's still firmly in the USA court by GDP Amounts of 7-8 Trillion Dollars!!! ($19tr vs $12tr ... approx) That's over 10% of the world economy and means China has to grow it's economy by over 50% while the USA Remains Stagnant.

I think we are still Decades away from any major shift.

And that's before we look at the really overwhelming differences in Military power...10 Nimitz class Nuclear Aircraft carriers really do allow a lot of projection of power when needed!
decades? I think that the next decade will be decisive.

Sure today, here and now America is top dog, but that has been eroding since Bush Jnr. Projecting ahead, I rather suspect that the next decade will be where a lot of people wake up to the change.

Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline.

I just hope that the transition goes smoothly. Sadly global politics suggests otherwise.

But hey I could be wrong, America could be top dog for decades.

Re military power a nation with good hacking abilities could potentially render a lot of technology useless. Your aircraft carriers are not much use if they are dead in the water and aeroplanes can’t take of. Over reliance on technological superiority may be a tadge short sighted. Though I give you American troops are battle ready. But again if eg China could hack into sleep America’s weaponry, it would be a dead duck. And that isn’t that far fetched.

I mean, conceptually (ignoring emp shielding for a moment) an ocean going drone could approach a carrier and stop stuff working fairly easily. Sit them on the ocean bed and let them rise when a carrier is above. It’s not rocket science. Then it’s just a question of how good your shielding is.

I currently put the prospect of proper global war in the next decade at about 41.78%. And that makes me feel quite uncomfortable. At a time that multiple nations globally are going more nationalistic, and may well look for enemies abroad to blame when things go wrong, stumbling our world into conflict, as the superpowers face each other off.

Sgreg I hope that you are right and I am wrong.
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remember your post I referenced basically said it had already happened, and clearly, it hasn't as your second post has clarified.

As for timescales we are both guessing, I said Decades but that could be as little as 20years, Which I think given the vast lead and Americas unwillingness to go quietly is probably about correct as a minimum.

But of course, sudden and unforeseen events could accelerate or slow these guesses. And remember Japan was once seen as a threat to overthrow the US as a superpower. Just because China is on the rise doesn't mean it could not stall and wain yet! There are a lot of empty Cities and disused airports and shopping centers in China that have been built to boost GDP that have become nothing but white elephants.

Then there is the issue of workers rights and health and safety which are all pretty much ignored in China ATM but as the Economy grows and the "man" becomes more relevant and empowered, this could have a huge throttling effect on the economy. America has most of that well sorted! Again China has little to no green policies and is burning coal and natural resources with abandon, how will it cope when this becomes unsustainable?

What I am saying is there is a lot more too it than China are growing faster than the US so they WILL catch them. It might well happen but it might well not too. and as I said is at least decades away (yes maybe as few as 2)


Secondly, even when it does, it's not such a dead cert that America will insist on going down in a scorched earth policy! Maybe they will be happy in their new role, maybe the California Model will have won over and the US will be more a Tech and Green power, happy to invent, explore, inspire and protect the earth while China takes up the role as Workhouse and industrial Giant or the world? Again that is all pie in the sky claptrap, but an example of how the world stage could play out differently to how history predicts!


I am still on the side of doubt about the future Global conflict in the near future. I just think the hunger for it is too low. Who would really prosper from an all-out china/Russia v Nato style conflict?

The Military Gulf is still too vast, I concede all your points on Cyber countermeasures, but really? as you say it's not difficult, so one would assume that the largest most advanced military fighting force in the world may have considered this too? And come up with a solution or two?
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:

Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline.


Russia is nothing like China or India, it is not an ascending economic or manufacturing powerhouse. Happy to be educated, but aside from oil/gas, what does Russia export in vast quantities; what it's growth sector?
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline.


Russia is nothing like China or India, it is not an ascending economic or manufacturing powerhouse. Happy to be educated, but aside from oil/gas, what does Russia export in vast quantities; what it's growth sector?


Hackers?
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SGreg wrote:
Remember your post I referenced basically said it had already happened, and clearly, it hasn't as your second post has clarified.

As for timescales we are both guessing, I said Decades but that could be as little as 20years, Which I think given the vast lead and Americas unwillingness to go quietly is probably about correct as a minimum.

But of course, sudden and unforeseen events could accelerate or slow these guesses. And remember Japan was once seen as a threat to overthrow the US as a superpower. Just because China is on the rise doesn't mean it could not stall and wain yet! There are a lot of empty Cities and disused airports and shopping centers in China that have been built to boost GDP that have become nothing but white elephants.

Then there is the issue of workers rights and health and safety which are all pretty much ignored in China ATM but as the Economy grows and the "man" becomes more relevant and empowered, this could have a huge throttling effect on the economy. America has most of that well sorted! Again China has little to no green policies and is burning coal and natural resources with abandon, how will it cope when this becomes unsustainable?

What I am saying is there is a lot more too it than China are growing faster than the US so they WILL catch them. It might well happen but it might well not too. and as I said is at least decades away (yes maybe as few as 2)


Secondly, even when it does, it's not such a dead cert that America will insist on going down in a scorched earth policy! Maybe they will be happy in their new role, maybe the California Model will have won over and the US will be more a Tech and Green power, happy to invent, explore, inspire and protect the earth while China takes up the role as Workhouse and industrial Giant or the world? Again that is all pie in the sky claptrap, but an example of how the world stage could play out differently to how history predicts!


I am still on the side of doubt about the future Global conflict in the near future. I just think the hunger for it is too low. Who would really prosper from an all-out china/Russia v Nato style conflict?

The Military Gulf is still too vast, I concede all your points on Cyber countermeasures, but really? as you say it's not difficult, so one would assume that the largest most advanced military fighting force in the world may have considered this too? And come up with a solution or two?
Mostly I agree with you sgreg.

For clarity...

1. I think that America has already passed its « natural empire » peak and is on the decline. The question is one of how fast or slow that decline will be, and how that interacts with China’s rise (and Russian games etc).

2. Your point re Japan. I do agree with you on this. Stuff could go wrong. But I am not feeling that, but who knows what is unforeseeable. But even if China does Peter out that still leaves America in a declining position, with the consequent issues for global security.

3. Re China specifically I have very few thoughts about it. This is a little difficult to succinctly explain, but China is comfortable to me, whereas Russia scares me senseless (bearing in mind that I believe in reincarnation I suspect this is due to past lives, sort of think that I may have been in a gulag at some point in time). Whereas Hong Kong while I have never been seems like « home » to me, well a past home (and yes I know it was a British colony). I have to set this aside when I am analysing.

But I do think that China will continue to rise for the rest of my lifetime, perhaps 30 years or so, then I can see it running into problems that have been well reported on in the likes of the Economist. Equally I think that it can work through those.

Put it this way, if money was no issue I would be investing and learning Mandarin. There is a certain calm energetic beauty about China. And yes I am aware of the negatives I do read the news.

4. Re who would benefit from global war, only arms manufacturers. But I don’t think that it will be actively sought, more that we are falling into circumstances that could make it happen. A bit like how I bumble and stumble my way through life, our great powers seem to be bumbling and stumbling towards conflict. Remember my 41.78% implies that I currently think that it will be avoided. But look at the people who are increasingly gaining political control (and hence proverbial finger on the button) all across our globe, and on how they got power. When economies tank, there could be a bit of a blame game going on, all focused externally. And that is tinder to conflict. I mean one angry tweet upsetting the wrong person who is having a bad day and needs to keep power over a hungry people; or some ejit flys a drone into the wrong place which gets a robust response and that ping pongs upwards, and so on. All while numerous countries have more divisive domestic politics adding to the mix.

5. Of course I am sure that global military bods have better minds than mine working on such issues of defence. I am just a hobbyist. However I also try to look at things from a global perspective as best I can (which hopefully they do as well) and I don’t see different countries as enemies, but as fellow citizens of nations sharing this planet. That perspective I think helps.


Besides as a multitude of retired US military officers will tell you those pesky UFOs have a habit of switching of nukes. Razz
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Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.


Last edited by SloggingScotsman on Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline.


Russia is nothing like China or India, it is not an ascending economic or manufacturing powerhouse. Happy to be educated, but aside from oil/gas, what does Russia export in vast quantities; what it's growth sector?
meddling with elections? Getting politicians globally under it’s thumb? (See my recent post on this). Syria, showing that it can be more influential than America. Etc

If you have dirt on sufficient numbers of MPs, MEPs etc getting them to reply «  how high » isn’t that diffciult.

« The KGBs poison factory » by Boris Volodarsky is a fascinating read. If true.
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Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:

Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline.


Russia is nothing like China or India, it is not an ascending economic or manufacturing powerhouse. Happy to be educated, but aside from oil/gas, what does Russia export in vast quantities; what it's growth sector?
meddling with elections? Getting politicians globally under it’s thumb? (See my recent post on this). Syria, showing that it can be more influential than America. Etc

If you have dirt on sufficient numbers of MPs, MEPs etc getting them to reply «  how high » isn’t that diffciult.

« The KGBs poison factory » by Boris Volodarsky is a fascinating read. If true.


I was going to suggest subterfuge with some sarcasm; but how will they fund this when we all drive Teslas? It's why many Gulf states are fervently trying to diversify & invest internationally.
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SGreg




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will try and keep this brief as it could easily escalate into a cacophony of rambling on both parts Laughing

But I think you are wrong about America and the current trend is indeed upwards if it's peaked it is AT its peak now, it is NOT on its way down, it could start tomorrow but it's not started already, the numbers show that conclusively.

I still think it has a way long way to grow especially as the growth industries in the US are Tech and changing the way the world operates, they could easily be ion the cusp of a new golden age of growth, we need genuine innovation as the technologies of old become obsolete by necessity (Climate Change!) the US should easily lead the way here!

On China, Like you, I am not overly worried by the concept of a China as the dominant power, but fear the transition for the reasons you have stated.


And yes, of course, there is always the possibility of accidental war, I pray (not literally) that we have learned enough from the previous century to avoid this, but many many people said that after 1919 and well...

And still there has to be public desire, any severe warmongery could be put down by western democracy. WW2 very nearly didn't happen, from a British and US point of view, I think in modern times we would avoid conflict at all cost, if we can.
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