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70.3 World Champs Pro race
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:46 am    Post subject: 70.3 World Champs Pro race Reply with quote

Men: Looks a cracker, with Frodo, Gomez and Brownlee all down to start (first time since London 2012?). Shame Brownlee is chronically unfit and I suspect he'll go well to T2 then step off the course when everyone else starts running away from him.

Frodo has been on a mission to kick the cr&p out of every other Kona contender prior to the race itself - and possibly Gomez (and Braden Currie) are the only ones yet to have their medicine. He'll want to dominate on the bike so we'll see if Gomez can hang with the bike pace now he's a fully fledged long course athlete - also interesting to see if Frodeno can hang into the lead/Gomez swim group.

Money's on Frodeno, suspect he has the bike to get away from the runners, and the run to beat any bikers he reaches T2 with. Gomez to run into 2nd mind, just short of road to catch.

Women: Going out on a limb here, but: 1. Ryf 2. Daylight 3. More daylight.
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:15 am    Post subject: Re: 70.3 World Champs Pro race Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Men: Looks a cracker, with Frodo, Gomez and Brownlee all down to start (first time since London 2012?). Shame Brownlee is chronically unfit and I suspect he'll go well to T2 then step off the course when everyone else starts running away from him.

Frodo has been on a mission to kick the cr&p out of every other Kona contender prior to the race itself - and possibly Gomez (and Braden Currie) are the only ones yet to have their medicine. He'll want to dominate on the bike so we'll see if Gomez can hang with the bike pace now he's a fully fledged long course athlete - also interesting to see if Frodeno can hang into the lead/Gomez swim group.

Money's on Frodeno, suspect he has the bike to get away from the runners, and the run to beat any bikers he reaches T2 with. Gomez to run into 2nd mind, just short of road to catch.

Women: Going out on a limb here, but: 1. Ryf 2. Daylight 3. More daylight.


Haha, it's like you're some kind of deviner TRO. Do you know this week's lottery numbers? Very Happy

It's kind of scary just how much better she is than the rest of the field though! Here's a better question for you ...

What position overall will Ryf come?

I also can't see past Frodo on the weekend. Like you say, he's been super fired up this season after last year's Kona and i think he wants to have that massive mental edge over all of his rivals going in again this October. Kanute is the other one that i think could make a play for the podium, but is he a good enough runner? Not sure. Think i'd also stick with Currie for 3rd (unless there's some mechanical/drafting that knocks and of the main guys out).
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last year in Chattanooga Ryf had a training day, and I don't think she'll do anything different this time unless she has to - and I can't really see who could do that.

It's also not a 'real' comparison as men/women race are different days.

But yes Ryf is a thing of beauty as an athlete; very rare you see someone who looks like a biker on the bike and a runner on the run.
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Last year in Chattanooga Ryf had a training day, and I don't think she'll do anything different this time unless she has to - and I can't really see who could do that.

It's also not a 'real' comparison as men/women race are different days.

But yes Ryf is a thing of beauty as an athlete; very rare you see someone who looks like a biker on the bike and a runner on the run.


Ah yes, i forgot that they split the field on WC day.
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Toyota_Crown




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Location: Lincoln / Scarborough (Algerino-Land) / Fircombe-on-Sea. sandbagging for daveM

PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe AB has been massively sandbagging Laughing
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Buzz_




Joined: 19 May 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be honest I'm surprised Brownlee is running. He looked out of sorts and fragile as hell at Glasgow. I assume there's a paycheck involved. He's also entered for Gold Coast, maybe he's going as a 'pilot'.

If Gomez wasn't doing Kona I'd have him as favourite, but I think the extra mileage will blunt his run speed, and he is not the strongest biker. Frodo might be favourite, but remember he basically moved to long coarse because he couldn't beat Gomez/Brownlee. They should out swim and run him - it's all about the bike.
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is everyone going nuts over AB? Look at Slowtwitch, they are convinced he will be on the podium.

His run technique is destructive for that sort of distance and above, it is way too aggressive (far too toe heavy) - Frodo, Gomez etc have a strong, efficient running style which translates really well into longer distance stuff whereas Ali can get a good race out of himself then he is ruined for months. He clearly isn't fit if Glasgow is a guide so that, in my opinion at least, puts his challenge to bed.

For me, in this order.

Gomes
Frodo
Currie

with Ben Kanute and Sebi as contenders for the podium should one of my three choices faulter.
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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Location: Devon

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jayski wrote:
Why is everyone going nuts over AB? Look at Slowtwitch, they are convinced he will be on the podium.

His run technique is destructive for that sort of distance and above, it is way too aggressive (far too toe heavy) - Frodo, Gomez etc have a strong, efficient running style which translates really well into longer distance stuff whereas Ali can get a good race out of himself then he is ruined for months. He clearly isn't fit if Glasgow is a guide so that, in my opinion at least, puts his challenge to bed.

For me, in this order.

Gomes
Frodo
Currie

with Ben Kanute and Sebi as contenders for the podium should one of my three choices faulter.


Don't think Sebi is racing, i'm sure i saw a post that he's doing one of the Challenge races (Almere maybe?)
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Suspect ST haven't really copped on just how unfit Ali was for the Euros.

He ran mid 32 IIRC - sounds decent but that's nearly 3 mins - close to 10% - off his peak run speed. Worse he was hanging in then blew, got dropped and ended up going backwards. You don't recover that in a 3 week training block and we don't know he is even capable of throwing down a solid consistent 3 week block.

He'll have to throw the hail mary as his only shout is to get to T2 with 2-3 mins on the c1:10 runners. Should be good viewing, as we'll see who can stay with him - Frodo may fancy it as he should be thereabouts after the swim and it may help give him gap Gomez.
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Buzz_




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But Brownlee didn't even boss the bike like he normally does at the Euros. In that class of field on that type of coarse he should have either ridden away, or at least just taken a couple of guys with him. Even more crucial considering he knew what run shape he was in.
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It wouldn't surprise me if Brownlee dropped-out on the run. Sanders & Lange are not racing, which should make Kona that more interesting, as they resting & keeping their powder dry.

I do wonder if all this 'smashing the competition on their home turf' thing for Frodo could end-up blunting his Kona race. He wants to prove a point after last year, but I can't help thinking that Lange was playing the long game in Frankfurt, and that Sanders will regroup after IMMT.

Kanute & AB to lead-out the swim?
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Chrace




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toyota_Crown wrote:
Maybe AB has been massively sandbagging Laughing

Takes one to know one.
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heard from a friend, currently at 70.3 WC, that AB may not be starting. Anyone else heard anything?
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r0bh




Joined: 03 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
Heard from a friend, currently at 70.3 WC, that AB may not be starting. Anyone else heard anything?


He has been posting stuff on Instagram since arriving in South Africa, so if he has dropped it is very last minute
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that it is rumors and probably nothing in it. Would be really nice to see AB start, and even better to see him finish
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