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Jan out of Kona
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:30 am    Post subject: Jan out of Kona Reply with quote

Does it change anything, or will the top 10 just continue with their game plan?

Certainly changes the dynamic a little.
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard to know how to feel about it really. On one hand a lot of people had him as odds-on favourite, but I wanted to see how that affected the race dynamic....on the other hand it opens it right up, again if you believe he was the outstanding favourite.

We still have the fast bikers trying to gap the fast runners, so it should be a good watch - assuming they can sort the streaming on FB Rolling Eyes
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

interesting....hoping for a close race...
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PhilleusPhogg




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How come he's out? Can't find any info about it!
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jayski




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stress fracture within his hip joint I believe
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gingerbongo




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep a pretty big stress fracture by the looks of things. Shouldn't have gone so hard in PE! Rolling Eyes Wink

Sanders will do what Sanders was going to do anyway. Same as Wurf, Kienle etc in my opinion. But I think, deep down, Gomez, Lange, Nillson (plus others) will be the happiest knowing that one of the best all rounders is out.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amberger will lead the swim and go down the road al la Potts/Dittrich style, acting as the carrot. Potts will have to decide who to swim with; I reckon he'll play it safe now he's older.

All the good runners will come out in the lead swim pack and set about after Amberger. 2-3 mins later the bike train will leave the pier, and be in 6th gear from the off; they will hit the front before Hawi and keep drilling it back to T2. We will sit watching, wondering whether any of the fast runners can bridge the gap on the run.

Do I have it about right?
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PCP




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Amberger will lead the swim and go down the road al la Potts/Dittrich style, acting as the carrot. Potts will have to decide who to swim with; I reckon he'll play it safe now he's older.

All the good runners will come out in the lead swim pack and set about after Amberger. 2-3 mins later the bike train will leave the pier, and be in 6th gear from the off; they will hit the front before Hawi and keep drilling it back to T2. We will sit watching, wondering whether any of the fast runners can bridge the gap on the run.

Do I have it about right?


Was going to post similar. Just a question of whether SK & LS can hold off Lange, if there is a surprise package like McNamee and whether Gomez can avoid the cramps he had the other week.
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tuckandgo




Joined: 03 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:42 am    Post subject: Re: Jan out of Kona Reply with quote

gingerbongo wrote:
Does it change anything, or will the top 10 just continue with their game plan?

Certainly changes the dynamic a little.


It's a pity because my money was on him 'folding' in the big race having gone too hard in the lead up.

It could be argued that this is what has happened, in that he didn't even make it.

Unfortunately, whoever wins will do so 'without Frodeno in the race'
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Buzz_




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCP wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
Amberger will lead the swim and go down the road al la Potts/Dittrich style, acting as the carrot. Potts will have to decide who to swim with; I reckon he'll play it safe now he's older.

All the good runners will come out in the lead swim pack and set about after Amberger. 2-3 mins later the bike train will leave the pier, and be in 6th gear from the off; they will hit the front before Hawi and keep drilling it back to T2. We will sit watching, wondering whether any of the fast runners can bridge the gap on the run.

Do I have it about right?


Was going to post similar. Just a question of whether SK & LS can hold off Lange, if there is a surprise package like McNamee and whether Gomez can avoid the cramps he had the other week.


Surely the lead swim pack will now be down on bike fire power, which will disadvantage the likes of Gomez. The 2nd pack of uber bikers will catch earlier and potentially get a bigger gap by T2. I think it favours the bike/runners now over the swim/runners. Not sure if there are any swim/bike/runners* in the mix?


*Obviously it's all relative, they can all swim/bike/run bloody fast, just talking relative strengths of the top contenders
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:47 am    Post subject: Re: Jan out of Kona Reply with quote

tuckandgo wrote:

Unfortunately, whoever wins will do so 'without Frodeno in the race'


I don't think that should detract, given his bad race last year. No-one is a shoe-in in Kona; well okay, except maybe Allen after '89, but that's the benefit of Hindsight.
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jayski




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But his "bad race" was due to injury and he still finished which, for me, showed class and respect to the event and everyone else out there slogging their guts out.

I reckon Baden Currie could be a bit of an outside bet.

Joshy to make it to Hawi (is there still a bike prime there?) then get taken. Any thoughts on him claiming the swim record? He wasn't far off last year and by his own admission cocked up his directions in the water.
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Chrace




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surely Lange will have worked on his biking, no?

If he has I have him as winner.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buzz_ wrote:


Surely the lead swim pack will now be down on bike fire power, which will disadvantage the likes of Gomez. The 2nd pack of uber bikers will catch earlier and potentially get a bigger gap by T2. I think it favours the bike/runners now over the swim/runners. Not sure if there are any swim/bike/runners* in the mix?


I think it will be better for Gomez, as Frodeno won't be in that chasing pack early-on, pushing to make the job of the bikers harder in catching-up. I would argue Gomez is a SBR athlete, he doesn't have a genuine Achilles heel?
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jayski wrote:
But his "bad race" was due to injury and he still finished which, for me, showed class and respect to the event and everyone else out there slogging their guts out.

Joshy to make it to Hawi (is there still a bike prime there?) then get taken. Any thoughts on him claiming the swim record? He wasn't far off last year and by his own admission cocked up his directions in the water.


Had this injury been diagnosed later, then he would have potentially had a re-run of last year; another 'bad day'. Getting injured as a pro of his ability is no-less imprudent than going too hard in a race and blowing-up no? In the war of attrition, unfortunately he's succumbed a month before race-day.

In essence, Frodeno has worked himself too hard and taken himself out of the race in September.
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