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Kona - Your 2018 picks
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
Posts: 17754
Location: alles was ich bin, alles was ich war

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:27 am    Post subject: Kona - Your 2018 picks Reply with quote

So, assuming no more big names break themselves....

I can see Starky going off-the-front like a demented amphibious honey badger, with Amberger in tow for a brief moment. It will be interesting to see if Potts decides to swim with them, or keep his powder dry. Meanwhile the 'contenders pack' of those that can swim will trundle along deciding whether they should be trying harder to keep the biker-pack at bay for as long as possible. They won't. The freight train with Kienle, Sanders & Wurf will pass them before Hawi and set about after Starky, who at this point will be foaming at the mouth in a bid to stay out front & take Wurf's bike record (he won't out-split the wolfpack); he might get back to T2 first though. Someone from that biker pack will probably take the win, holding off the runners.

The question is where will our plucky answer to LIONel - Joe Skipper - find himself. He's got the potential to do really well, but I don't think his speedo swimming is quite good enough to swim with LS/SK/CW before they hit the after burners? If he could ride with them, he could go top-5 (in theory).

Men:

Sanders
Lange
Kienle
McNamee
Gomez

Women:

Ryf
Charles
...umm
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PCP




Joined: 13 Oct 2012
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Location: Manchester

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sanders
Kienle
Lange
McNamee
Skipper

Ryf
Charles
Rinny
Jackson
Crowley
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TriSam




Joined: 26 Aug 2011
Posts: 1279
Location: Tunbridge Wells

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skipper has been absolutely nailing some bike sessions recently, having just come off the back of a training camp at altitude in Font Romeu.

Just yesterday he did:
2 x 30 minutes at 355, 360W and then 3 x 10 minutes at 386, 386, 387W

In the 2016 Kona race he was out of the water over a minute ahead of Lionel, but a minute behind Kienle. I think with some recent improvements he could theoretically hang onto Kienle and Wurf, and if not should be able to hang onto Lionel.

It will be a really exciting race that's for sure - I think we'll see it won in about 8:05 though, not as fast as last year.

How does everything think Tim Don will get on?
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TriSam wrote:
Skipper has been absolutely nailing some bike sessions recently, having just come off the back of a training camp at altitude in Font Romeu.


Just hope he's been nailing some swim sessions too!
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apma




Joined: 06 Sep 2018
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Kienle

2) Gomez

3) Skipper
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gingerbongo




Joined: 21 Sep 2012
Posts: 1655
Location: Devon

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Crowley
4. Hauschildt
5. Rinny

1. Sanders
2. Lange
3. Kienle
4. Gomez
5. Nillsson
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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Location: Farthingstone

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i think Joe has a good chance here...i follow his training such as he posts on FB, and he looks pretty strong...and confident...

I would like Gomez to do well, but will see where his head is late on in the run....I am hoping for just a few minutes of spread across the top 5 coming off the bike...
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
Posts: 57

PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mens

Sebi
Lange
Currie
Gomez
T-O

Womens

Daniela
Haug
Charles
Rinny
Jackson


Nobody mentioning Susie Cheetham?... done pretty well over recent years
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fruit thief




Joined: 18 May 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Men:

1. Sanders
2. Wurf
3. Skipper
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1237

PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Be great to see Skipper up there on the mix, he has the bike/run to do it.

All about the swim; IIRC his first Kona he raced his own race for top 15 ish, second he burned through his entire book of matches chasing solo on the bike - think he was 30 secs away from the front main pack when he blew. He needs guys to work with on the bike, so hoping his swim will hold out.

Other worry is he is heavily raced this year, IMNZ early season, then 3 IMs in 4 weeks mid season. That may bite.

Love to see him swim and bike with Lionel then drop him on the run😜
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PCP




Joined: 13 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Be great to see Skipper up there on the mix, he has the bike/run to do it.

All about the swim; IIRC his first Kona he raced his own race for top 15 ish, second he burned through his entire book of matches chasing solo on the bike - think he was 30 secs away from the front main pack when he blew. He needs guys to work with on the bike, so hoping his swim will hold out.

Other worry is he is heavily raced this year, IMNZ early season, then 3 IMs in 4 weeks mid season. That may bite.

Love to see him swim and bike with Lionel then drop him on the run😜


We could have a forum invasion of Slowtwitch, all of us with union jack flags as avatars Very Happy

When Joe was injured earlier in the season he spent a lot of time on his swim and he says he made a lot of time up (The Brick Session Podcast, 24th July). Hopefully he swims well.
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fruit thief wrote:
Men:

1. Sanders
2. Wurf
3. Skipper



You do know that the race doesn't stop in T2 right?
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fruit thief




Joined: 18 May 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jayski wrote:
You do know that the race doesn't stop in T2 right?


Very Happy
Let's wait and see. My dog's a big tri fan, got him to pick #2
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see Wurf staying top-5 after T2; he'll cook his goose.
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stenard




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PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It'll be interesting. He did just run a 2:50ish marathon at the end of an IM didn't he? That's a step change from not being able to break 3hrs, and moreso versus the 3:20 he ran in Kona last year.

Last year Lange came into T2 about 10mins behind him and ran 2:40. McNamee did the same and ran 2:45 to take third. If he can run sub3, a podium spot is not entirely out of the question.
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