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Kona - Your 2018 picks
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TriSam




Joined: 26 Aug 2011
Posts: 1279
Location: Tunbridge Wells

PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just take a look at the results from the Ho'ala Swim 2017, which is held just a few days pre-event :
https://www.sportstats.ca/display-results.xhtml?raceid=47185

Obviously not everyone is going to go 100% in this swim and not all of the top athletes were there, but to be 4 seconds behind Harry Wiltshire who was 6th out of the water in Kona in the front pack shows how strong she is
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doug




Joined: 07 Jan 2004
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Location: Harrow (Doonhamer in exile)

PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buzz_ wrote:
doug wrote:
I know they get a 5 min head start, but how many blokes will Lucy Charles beat out the water ?

With a 5min headstart? All of them. If she started in the men's pack she would be top 5.


Its the men get a 5min head start, Lucy will still beat a fair number out of the water.
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TriSam




Joined: 26 Aug 2011
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Location: Tunbridge Wells

PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Women have a 5 minute deficit to the Male pros, I would imagine that she could catch the Sanders/Kienle/Wurf group by T1
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure she and Brandon exited with the rather startled Kienle group last year.

Not sure our man Skipper will be able to hold her off even with his 5 min head start.

Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.
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PCP




Joined: 13 Oct 2012
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Location: Manchester

PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
I'm sure she and Brandon exited with the rather startled Kienle group last year.

Not sure our man Skipper will be able to hold her off even with his 5 min head start.

Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.


Maybe but I reckon she's rather steam past them and get as much time as possible on the field.
It will be more like them trying to get a tow off her - and failing, probably.
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
I'm sure she and Brandon exited with the rather startled Kienle group last year.

Not sure our man Skipper will be able to hold her off even with his 5 min head start.

Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.

Last year she caught the Sebi/Sanders group right around swim exit. It really hampered them, and almost messed up the battle for first lady out of the water.
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.


Technically, absolutely. But anything that puts Ryf under pressure and spices it up....
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TRO Saracen




Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1236

PostPosted: Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCP wrote:
TRO Saracen wrote:
I'm sure she and Brandon exited with the rather startled Kienle group last year.

Not sure our man Skipper will be able to hold her off even with his 5 min head start.

Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.


Maybe but I reckon she's rather steam past them and get as much time as possible on the field.
It will be more like them trying to get a tow off her - and failing, probably.


Meant more on the bike, as she'll have 3rd/4th pack MPRO trains coming past....

Back to the predictions:

1. Lange. Proven sub 2:40 Kona run and knows how to peak for the big one. Only Jan had the antidote.
2. Sebi. Feeling that he's putting everything into Kona this year, unlike the last 2/3 years. Will be lightly raced, fresh.
3. Gomez. Big ask for a debut, but being able to soft tap a front pack swim then sit on his watts before picking a train to latch onto as it comes past is a huge advantage. Could be 2-3 hours before he has to burn a match and that counts late on.
4. Lionel. Leading until mile 23 last year so only tweaks really needed, he seems to have gone radical in a few areas and needs 2/3 hail mary's to find the end zone, otherwise there could be an epic meltdown. He's tough though but I think will just get edged out of the podium.

Not bothering with the women, only issue is who's 3rd.
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
PCP wrote:
TRO Saracen wrote:
I'm sure she and Brandon exited with the rather startled Kienle group last year.

Not sure our man Skipper will be able to hold her off even with his 5 min head start.

Really they should make the gap 10 mins as couldn't she potentially hitch a ride for at least a while with one of the slower MPRO trains which is a big advantage compared to being off the front solo.


Maybe but I reckon she's rather steam past them and get as much time as possible on the field.
It will be more like them trying to get a tow off her - and failing, probably.


Meant more on the bike, as she'll have 3rd/4th pack MPRO trains coming past....

Back to the predictions:

1. Lange. Proven sub 2:40 Kona run and knows how to peak for the big one. Only Jan had the antidote.
2. Sebi. Feeling that he's putting everything into Kona this year, unlike the last 2/3 years. Will be lightly raced, fresh.
3. Gomez. Big ask for a debut, but being able to soft tap a front pack swim then sit on his watts before picking a train to latch onto as it comes past is a huge advantage. Could be 2-3 hours before he has to burn a match and that counts late on.
4. Lionel. Leading until mile 23 last year so only tweaks really needed, he seems to have gone radical in a few areas and needs 2/3 hail mary's to find the end zone, otherwise there could be an epic meltdown. He's tough though but I think will just get edged out of the podium.

Not bothering with the women, only issue is who's 3rd.



So....who will be 3rd woman
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Buzz_




Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 400

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jayski wrote:
So....who will be 3rd woman

Whoever runs the 2nd fastest marathon (Ryf being fastest)
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PCP




Joined: 13 Oct 2012
Posts: 1938
Location: Manchester

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buzz_ wrote:
jayski wrote:
So....who will be 3rd woman

Whoever runs the 2nd fastest marathon (Ryf being fastest)


You have put Sali 3rd so she must be lightening quick be beat Haug. I have to admit I don't even know who she is.
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
Posts: 57

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCP wrote:
Buzz_ wrote:
jayski wrote:
So....who will be 3rd woman

Whoever runs the 2nd fastest marathon (Ryf being fastest)


You have put Sali 3rd so she must be lightening quick be beat Haug. I have to admit I don't even know who she is.


Sali is her married name, previously Lehtonnen - ran great in South Africa last year and did a good job in Kona too. Yet another very good Felt sponsored female triathlete
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Buzz_




Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 400

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCP wrote:
Buzz_ wrote:
jayski wrote:
So....who will be 3rd woman

Whoever runs the 2nd fastest marathon (Ryf being fastest)


You have put Sali 3rd so she must be lightening quick be beat Haug. I have to admit I don't even know who she is.

Only based on proven record. Sali was 2nd fastest at Kona last year I think, Haug never been, not been exposed to the heat. Expect Haug to fade in the 2nd half, much like Gomez.

It all makes sense in my head. But then everyone expected Charles to fade last year.
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jayski




Joined: 30 Jul 2018
Posts: 57

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Has that overbearing loudmouthed cook Ramsay bought a place again this year?
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Jorgan




Joined: 12 Nov 2007
Posts: 17748
Location: alles was ich bin, alles was ich war

PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What about the streaming, will it be on FB again or does this Amazon deal mean they'll be handling it? As long as it's better than what I saw of the 70.3 WC Men's race.
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