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Sub 4:30 Half Ironman
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mattsurf




Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 838
Location: Zug, Switzerland

PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:53 am    Post subject: Sub 4:30 Half Ironman Reply with quote

With just over 7 weeks until St Pölten, I am tentatively imagining that sub 4:30 may be feasible: My weight is lighter than I have been since the age of 15, as a result I am running and cycling quicker than ever. If I execute my race strategy really well I am hoping for the following splits

Swim 33m - this will require a 1:45/100m pace, which is just about feasible in a wetsuit if I can draft

Bike 2h20m - I have done sub 2:30 before, and am stronger this year, however 38.6kph does sound awfully quick

Run 1h33m - Currently my HM pace is 1h27m, not sure I can get this close after a hard ride

For those who have done a sub 4:30 HIM, what was your pace for the individual distances?

To achieve this I would need to take 25mins off my HIM PB.... it has been a good winter for me, but not sure that it has been THAT good.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remember that the swim includes a run between the lakes that's not included in the 1900m, so add a minute plus for that.

Don't know what the new run is like, but flat like the old one I'm sure. I have no idea how accurate the run is; when I did 3x St Polten it was before GPS watches were widely available ('08-10). My best run there was 1:27.

The bike is what makes this event of course. Just hope there isn't a headwind on the Autobahn section, as that will cost you quite a bit of time in my experience. Try and enjoy the view over the Danube on the first climb, up through the vineyards. Be careful on the descent after the first climb! There was an ambulance scraping someone up one year I did it. Keep your powder dry on the main climb (Gansbach) as the steepest section is at the top, where there is an aid station. I will try and dig out links to old threads on this event for your info; I wrote a LOT back in the day.

Remember the Vaporflys Very Happy
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Long before you were here Matt, the 2010 St Polten thread....32 pages no less! Also contains a link to 2009 thread.

http://www.tritalk.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=59869&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
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stenard




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:49 am    Post subject: Re: Sub 4:30 Half Ironman Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
For those who have done a sub 4:30 HIM, what was your pace for the individual distances?

Answering your specific question:
Swim - 0:31
Bike - 2:20
Run - 1:32
Total - 4:28


As Jorgan says though, transition and other course complexities can factor. Bahrain were short transitions relatively. There was a fairly long run up and down the whole of transition each time, but from swim out to the bags was literally 50 odd metres, so super short. It's the first time I've ever wasted time stood at my bag still without my wetsuit off the shoulders. My transitions were 2:54 and 2:25, and I made up a LOT of ground on people with those times. I was easily one of the fastest combined in the top 25 in my AG. That's still over 5 minutes of your race time.

At both IM and 70.3 distance last year, I made a concerted effort to blitz through transition. Once you get past "complete" level, it's just wasted time. I ate a banana on the run to my bike. I'm doing a flying mount/dismount. I have a plastic bag with all my run nutrition in that I then stow in jersey pockets on the move. etc.

Looking at the St Polten course, as Jorgan says, if the run between swims is not factored into the swim distance, then 200m there is easily a couple of minutes. You're a stronger cyclist that me, but nearly 1000m of elevation gain from looking at other strava files is a lot to then average that kind of speed. Is the descent easy to fly down?

I do think your run is punchy. I'll admit I'm yet to properly convert a 70.3 run as I'd like (they have all been hot in the last 12m however: Mallorca, Ibiza and Bahrain), but I still havent broken 90mins yet have gone under 80 twice in that time in a standalone HM.

Fundamentally, I'd say if you really want to start knocking decent time off your overall total, look at transition. I found ways to save probably minutes there. The extra fitness and training required to save the same amount of time on s-b-r is massive. There is likely a lot of low hanging fruit, even if you think you are already fairly slick right now.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^ despite the elevation, the bike is fast. My best time was 2:32, and my biking wasn't as strong as Matt's, but 12 mins is a lot faster. The first big descent is technical and the second is long and fast, with sweeping bends. Definitely worth driving if you have a car.

Matt Molloy caught me just after the Gansbach summit in 2010 (he started wave after me) but followed me down the descent as knowledge was 'power' on that course. He dropped me on the next hill Smile

Again, I'm going to use Matt Molloy as a barometer for you. He had a blistering race to come 2nd in M40 going 4:14; that would have easily won the year before (and pretty much every year). Matt had no weaknesses, a real machine and his splits were: 26/2:22/1:20. So 2:20 is a very punchy split! His nemesis that day was Harald Funk, a fcuking beast who was local to me in Bavaria. He rode a 2:17 on his yellow Softride...passed me like a train on the Gansbach. These are guys that KQ'd in their sleep.
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve, awsome bike time, given the power you use, you clearly are a very efficient/aero rider as I don't think that you are massively lighter than me

Just seen the St Pölten has 10 more places for Nice, so now 60, which should mean 8 slots in 45-49 (last year were 7 slots) and based on times last year, 8th place finish was 4:44

However, my plan is still to aim for 4:30

I am probably a little optimistic with Bike estimate, the 3rd fastest rider in my AG last year averaged 246w@3.24W/kg to finish in 2h24m, This is pretty much where I am today

I was 4th on the Bike in my AG in Weymouth, and I am 5kg and 5% stronger today, if the wind is not bad, I think that 2:24-2:26 is a little more realistic.

The St Pölten run looks like it was also 1km short
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^ yeah I looked at more recent St Polten results, and the field is now more diluted than 10 years ago; getting a slot in an under 50 AG would have taken much more than a 4:44 when I was racing it. Makes sense though, with a lot more events.
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stenard




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mattsurf wrote:
Steve, awsome bike time, given the power you use, you clearly are a very efficient/aero rider as I don't think that you are massively lighter than me

Last weight measurement before flying to Bahrain was 72kg. On such a flat course however, W/kg was broadly irrelevant. W/cda was much more important. I only put out 197AP/203 NP, so not even 2.75 W/kg.

Best bike split has been very informative for me over the past 12 months, but I massively exceeded that (204NP had predicted 2:27). The roads were pristine (except for the race track) so crr would have been way down, and the benefit of riding alongside fast moving traffic cannot be underestimated.

mattsurf wrote:
Just seen the St Pölten has 10 more places for Nice, so now 60, which should mean 8 slots in 45-49 (last year were 7 slots) and based on times last year, 8th place finish was 4:44

However, my plan is still to aim for 4:30

I would agree with this mindset. Don't underestimate the draw of Nice as a 70.3 worlds location, versus SA last year. In Mallorca last year they were practically giving away medallions. Whilst a higher number of slots increases your chances, it will also increase the amount of good quality slot hunters entering.

For example, I'd estimated I'd need to come about 7th or 8th in Bahrain to get a slot, based on some start list analysis. In 2017 that would have required a 4:44. I did 4:28 and came 9th, and scraped in*. Even in the Middle East, the standard increased substantially, which I would largely put down to the interest in 70.3 worlds qualification.

*it may also have just been a fast day, although I don't think so. The only person in AG who did it in 2017 and 2018 went 10mins faster in 2018, and 9 of those 10mins was on the swim (1min) and run (8mins) - running a 1:19 versus a 1:27 would generally be down to a step change in run performance over 12 months, not so much the conditions.
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Buzz_




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stenard wrote:
*it may also have just been a fast day, although I don't think so. The only person in AG who did it in 2017 and 2018 went 10mins faster in 2018, and 9 of those 10mins was on the swim (1min) and run (8mins) - running a 1:19 versus a 1:27 would generally be down to a step change in run performance over 12 months, not so much the conditions.

I'd argue that much step change in running is more likely down to better biking on the day. Either they overbiked in 2017, or under in 2018, but 45s/ml run improvement in 12 months is not from run training alone.
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jibberjim




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buzz_ wrote:
stenard wrote:
*it may also have just been a fast day, although I don't think so. The only person in AG who did it in 2017 and 2018 went 10mins faster in 2018, and 9 of those 10mins was on the swim (1min) and run (8mins) - running a 1:19 versus a 1:27 would generally be down to a step change in run performance over 12 months, not so much the conditions.

I'd argue that much step change in running is more likely down to better biking on the day. Either they overbiked in 2017, or under in 2018, but 45s/ml run improvement in 12 months is not from run training alone.


Not from training alone, but not that difficult with believable weight change too. However you're also correct that execution can also do it more easily than conditions.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^ well, if for arguments sake you improve your biking by 20% but only use 15% of that in the race, then your run is going to benefit too.

Biking gains can improve your run split, but not the other way around....
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stenard




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

True. I did overlook that. So yes, maybe it was a really fast bike day, and despite only going 1min faster on the bike, that was a much more conservative effort.
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mattsurf




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I spent the early part of last year recovering from running injury, and then had a niggling injury ahead of my last 70.3, However, in my off season, running has been going really well, so I am around 45s/km faster today than I was 12 months ago
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JeffB




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been reasonably close on our clubs course a few times which is considered fairly slow. The bike is at least 2k long and 3 years ago there was about 6 miles on freshly laid surface dressing which knocked off a bit of time.

The run is 50% on track\grass as well so not quick, my better splits have been in the ballpark of;

Swim 32:xx
Bike 2:36
Run 1:34

On euro roads, particularly on an accurate course, I'd hope to be just under 2:30. Run would also be 2-3 minutes faster as well.

But, it's got really small transition and the swim to T1 is about 10M.

Jeff
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Tupperware




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PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My times from 2017 (113) so flat course, but shoddy bike road surface and congested trail run 😉

Swim: 27:39
T1: 2:45
Bike: 2:21:50
T2: 1:46
Run: 1:31:37
Total: 4:25:37

I always feel disappointed by my run times in HIM/FIM (HM PB is 1:15 although from 2014) so would concur with comments above ref over biking etc.

Transitions are relatively poor as well...I seem to faff a lot.
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