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More Middle East Military Action?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:08 am    Post subject: More Middle East Military Action? Reply with quote

It's looking very likely isn't it?



I can't see anyone wanting to commit ground forces to this one though...
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tri_longer




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most likely to be air strikes to knock out air defence systems and then an enforced no fly zone as they did with Libya.

Next step will be to arm the opposition.

Very very unlikley we will see ground forces going in, unless they are from another middle eastern country.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tri_longer wrote:
Very very unlikley we will see ground forces going in, unless they are from another middle eastern country.


I'm sure the Israelis will be only too happy to help Rolling Eyes Wink

Thanks to the Russians, I suspect the Syrian air defences are sophisticated enough to make manned air attacks a bit more dangerous than over Iraq or Libya. Time for a few Tomahawk missiles?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's all very tricky. You can only achieve so much with an intervention of any kind; although it's much more like 'Iraq' than 'Afghanistan' from a likely long-term outcome.

What would the west hope to achieve from a limited intervention, and how would it affect the future balance of power in Syria? There's the clear possibility that any power vacuum is filled by yet more 'undesirables'. We've seen it all before, and the Arab League really need to get more involved, as they understand the region more than the west ever could.
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Toptel




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

British army is moving in?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toptel wrote:
British army is moving in?


Only if Shergar's there to ride in on.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Toptel wrote:
British army is moving in?


Only if Shergar's there to ride in on.


+1


Can't see this happening at all.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 scheds wrote:
I can't see anyone wanting to commit ground forces to this one though...


Too true - the Syrians are more than a little competent.

tri_longer wrote:
Most likely to be air strikes to knock out air defence systems and then an enforced no fly zone as they did with Libya.


Remember the Russians have been arming these guys for decades. No easy airstrikes in this country - more likely IMO to go for Assad directly.

No ground invasion and a whole lot of Tomohawks that are near their sell-by date so need to be used up.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would think missiles to take out most of the air defence systems (new or not), before they can do manned air opperations to mop up the remainder.


Has the Syrian gov. been using much airforce in the civil war up to now? thought it was mainly artillary and close quarter stuff?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 scheds wrote:
I would think missiles to take out most of the air defence systems (new or not), before they can do manned air opperations to mop up the remainder.


Russian equivalent of the patriot could be quite competent - it'll be an interesting tussle as it would be the first time US smart weapons would have come up against Russian defences.

Maybe something we don't want to know the results of .......
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
2 scheds wrote:
I can't see anyone wanting to commit ground forces to this one though...


Too true - the Syrians are more than a little competent.


But then so were the Republican Guard.

I guess we can expect key figures to 'disappear' just like those Iranian nuclear scientists did a couple of years ago. But these aren't scientists, and who knows who'll replace them.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am the only one who thinks it's a bit fortuitous that there was a chemical attack attributed to the Syrian Govt just weeks after the US stated that chemical weapons was a line not to cross. Either some faction in the Syrian regime fecked up royally, or they've been set up.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another religious/ethnic conflict again with the Shi'ites (Assad's regime with the Ba'ath party and his religious faction the Alaouites close to the Shi'ites supported by Iran (of course) and Russia (former ally)) against the Sunnites (supported by Saudi Arabia) peppered with fundamentalists (hence the reluctance of the West to be involved on a background of religious tensions in the region with the Muslim Brotherhood being hammered down by the army in Egypt and Tunisian left and secular groups fighting the onslaught of the fundamentalists eroding civil rights and freedom of speech in Tunisia, without forgetting the current Turkish President having civil unrest with his fundamentalist party eroding secular institutions and people rebelling against it).
Meanwhile the Syrian population is suffering from chemical attacks.

Far from being clear cut - France will want to intervene but Russia is a heavyweight with China against military intervention - UK and US although being reluctant would like to stabilise the region of course and further the cause of democracy.

Far from being clear cut in the Region

I'm worried about the fundamentalists though - hate that bunch - they dislike democracy anyway

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawite_State

the resolution of the 2 year conflict could lead to a partition of Syria
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaggy. wrote:
I am the only one who thinks it's a bit fortuitous that there was a chemical attack attributed to the Syrian Govt just weeks after the US stated that chemical weapons was a line not to cross. Either some faction in the Syrian regime fecked up royally, or they've been set up.


Or they've used them many times and this is the first time they've been caught. Or perhaps one of a dozen permutations, the only thing that can be sure is that chemical weapons have been used. What else is known?

Assad has these chemical weapons stockpiled.

Assads defecting staff have warned that he will use chemical weapons.

Assad didn't stop shelling the area after the chemical weapons attack, but was still using conventional shells on the same suburb when the UN inspectors arrived.

If we expect incontrovertible evidence from a warzone we will never enforce a ban on the use of chemical weapons.

Is it possible it's a set up? Yes. Is it likely? maybe not. So...what do we do?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shaggy. wrote:
I am the only one who thinks it's a bit fortuitous that there was a chemical attack attributed to the Syrian Govt just weeks after the US stated that chemical weapons was a line not to cross. Either some faction in the Syrian regime fecked up royally, or they've been set up.


I thought he said it was a red line a long time ago.

Interested in the evidence though. Also interested in why blowing them limb from limb is not a red line, but gassing them is.
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