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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:38 pm    Post subject: All this talk of the EU falling apart... Reply with quote

....if popular politicians win throughout Europe.


Absolute tosh. Not about popular politicians winning that could easily happen especially now that it is becoming conventional wisdom, a bit like the 4 minute mile.

But...what will happen if France, Italy etc exit, is that there will be a rebalancing Eastwards of power (and yes I know some of them could leave as well). So there could easily be a different EU, but EU nonetheless. A more Russian friendly EU, a less rules based EU (don't laugh), but a significant powerful force nonetheless that takes Europe in a different direction.

Just as nations grow and shrink over centuries, and people move between base instincts and wise illumination (or fear based to inspirational management), the EU will survive. It may not be the same as it is today, and some western powers may be left out in the cold, scrambling away in a nationalistic anti immigrant place, but the EU will survive.

But what the heck do I know.


I will say it again, the changing global power balances between America, China (both primarily) and Russia and the EU, need to be watched very carefully over the next decade, for the end result could be a very different world to what we know. Not saying that it will be bad, just different.
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Thing of the Fountains




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:58 pm    Post subject: Re: All this talk of the EU falling apart... Reply with quote

Well Europe can't go any further in a Westerly direction, or it would be in the sea.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


well, according to your post, the options were to stay in an EU which imposed an ideology we had no control on the direction of, or we risk being left out in the cold...

in the short term, it may have been better to stay under that influence...but it almost certainly would have ended in tears...
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


well, according to your post, the options were to stay in an EU which imposed an ideology we had no control on the direction of, or we risk being left out in the cold...

in the short term, it may have been better to stay under that influence...but it almost certainly would have ended in tears...
ejc where exactly did I say that?
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


well, according to your post, the options were to stay in an EU which imposed an ideology we had no control on the direction of, or we risk being left out in the cold...

in the short term, it may have been better to stay under that influence...but it almost certainly would have ended in tears...
ejc where exactly did I say that?


SloggingScotsman wrote:
and some western powers may be left out in the cold

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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


well, according to your post, the options were to stay in an EU which imposed an ideology we had no control on the direction of, or we risk being left out in the cold...

in the short term, it may have been better to stay under that influence...but it almost certainly would have ended in tears...
ejc where exactly did I say that?


SloggingScotsman wrote:
and some western powers may be left out in the cold
Ejc, how exactly did you infer what you did from what I wrote????? I am genuinely baffled.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


This is my interpretation of your post.

Whilst they may not be the only options available, the two which were offered in your post were that nations could be a part of a new looking EU or be left out in the cold.

For most countries, staying in any EU may have been safer politically, financially and militarily in the short term, but, ultimately, the current ideology is deeply flawed and the stronger the EU got, the harder it would be for people to determine their own futures.

The most overwhelming observation of this whole fiasco is that the EU has claimed to wish to unite people. Its policies have ultimately polarised opinion instead, and yet it blames the people and not its policies. When they are so certain that the ideology is correct and they are happy to impose it on an unwilling population, there is usually only one way out. For once, we have been given an alternative option.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
yep, always better to impose an ideology on people...far safer in the short term...
for once Ejc you have lost me Confused


This is my interpretation of your post.

Whilst they may not be the only options available, the two which were offered in your post were that nations could be a part of a new looking EU or be left out in the cold.

For most countries, staying in any EU may have been safer politically, financially and militarily in the short term, but, ultimately, the current ideology is deeply flawed and the stronger the EU got, the harder it would be for people to determine their own futures.

The most overwhelming observation of this whole fiasco is that the EU has claimed to wish to unite people. Its policies have ultimately polarised opinion instead, and yet it blames the people and not its policies. When they are so certain that the ideology is correct and they are happy to impose it on an unwilling population, there is usually only one way out. For once, we have been given an alternative option.
ok Ejc, but methinks you are reading too much into my words.

In summary:-

1. Like when the four minute mile was broken, it is now more likely that populist parties could gain power.

2. If that happens, the EU won't fall apart, as is being suggested on the news, the EU will simply shift eastwards and become more Russian friendly.

3. It is important that we keep an eye on (as I have been saying for years) the changing power balance in our world.

Further details in my original post.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:31 am    Post subject: Re: All this talk of the EU falling apart... Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
a rebalancing Eastwards of power (and yes I know some of them could leave as well)...... A more Russian friendly EU


Russia is generally not liked or trusted by other eastern European nations; so it would have to be by force. Again.
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:45 am    Post subject: Re: All this talk of the EU falling apart... Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
a rebalancing Eastwards of power (and yes I know some of them could leave as well)...... A more Russian friendly EU


Russia is generally not liked or trusted by other eastern European nations; so it would have to be by force. Again.
Jorgan, maybe, but remember I do have a solid proveable track record going back decades (to spooks at least) of noticing things that people disbelieve and laugh at, until they happen.

For crystal clarity here though, I am not predicting this outcome, as I can't quite get a handle on what will happen in Italy, France, Germany etc over the next couple of years. But if populist politicians do get elected (and let's face it they could), the outcome that I have described is something that I would invest heavily in, if I was a man of such means.

It's not the outcome I personally want, but is one that all western governments should be looking at the strategic consequences of, for it will affect terms of trade, relative positioning, access to resources, etc.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blair was a popularist politician...and too few people objected then...

Jorgan is correct,the east only fell under soviet control by force and not because the majority willed it

Despite Brexit, I still get the sense that the EU isn't listening to its people
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SloggingScotsman




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:


Despite Brexit, I still get the sense that the EU isn't listening to its people
I agree with you on this Ejc.

Hope I am wrong.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:


Despite Brexit, I still get the sense that the EU isn't listening to its people
I agree with you on this Ejc.

Hope I am wrong.


No, we are both correct AND in agreement with this..... Wink

That's the problem with imposing ideologies...when they don't work, and are not receptive to feedback, force is the only remaining option...
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