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Reality Check Global Forecast
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2217

PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:16 am    Post subject: Reality Check Global Forecast Reply with quote

I said a while back that I was worried about the rapidly growing possibility of global war over the next decade or so, and Ejc wrote that he agreed with this but for different reasons to me (Ejc please jump in and correct if need be).

Now whether or not you believe my history of proven Predictions, or my success with predicting things, admittedly on a small sample, linked below, on the good judgement project, does not really concern me. What does concern me is that I really do think that we could stumble our way into serious global conflict. The reasons are obvious, increasing nationalism, intolerance, fracturing etc. Combined with this is the popular uprising trend that I trace back to the fall of the Soviet Union, through Arab spring, umberella et all.

Now, perhaps arrogantly, I genuinely believe that if the EU and Cameron had heeded my public advice back in the day neither Britain nor the EU would be where it is right now. But obviously we will never know. More worryingly for me (I have always carried the weight of our world on my shoulders so to speak) at this precise moment in time, for all of my certainty about what politicians needed to do in the past to prevent these problems arising, right now I am stumped. And that is a little frightening and makes me realise that I really do need to go and grab yet another set of specific and expensive life experiences to help me in the future political world. But realistically that ain't going to happen. Which leaves me seeing the encroaching darkness and feeling powerless to stop it. Once darkness has run its course and burned itself out I can see how we can pick the pieces back up again, but I may be long gone by that stage.

So this leaves me asking you all for a reality check, i.e. tell me what you think is going to happen over the next decade or so.

It's difficult for me to predict as some of the key decision making points aren't clear to me yet but I do see it being entirely possible that fifteen years down the line the European Union will be much more eastern orientated, Americas relative global standing will be much reduced in much the same way that the British empire fell, and China will be the dominating force, outwith Europe where I think Russia will hold as much power. Western European nations will be rebuilding and making the best of it.

It seems from reading the press this morning that at least some European politicians seem to hold similar views on at least parts of this (thinking for example the Italian politician talking about the eu in the guardian or the telegraph), which is what has prompted me to ask you, for your thoughts.

I am looking for much higher level than Brexit will be good or bad, Trump will be good or bad, or the EU will stay or collapse. To me it is about the very fabric of our existence, the balance between the darkness of human nature and the light that can be found within us all.

Specifically do you agree or disagree that over the next decade and a half or so:-

1. Europe will be much more eastern orientated than it is today?
2. China will be increasingly leading while America is declining in influence in global affairs?
3. Western Europe will be much less relevant to global affairs than it is today?
4. During this period the risk of a full global war is higher than it is today?


Now I am not predicting these things, partially as I don't want to, I hope that numerous decisions will be taken that results in a more balanced outcome, and indeed that global war can be averted. But as I look at energy flows, and the balance between darkness and light (in us all as individuals as well as globally), and I just don't know. But from a risk analysis perspective I am worried. I only hope that global politicians show wisdom and allow the light to breathe as opposed to darkness engulfing.
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GrahamO




Joined: 10 Apr 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please see a Doctor soon.
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why? Because I worry about our world? Or because I think? Or because I can see both the good (light) and bad (darkness) within each and every one of us? Or because I can back up what I say with evidence (e.g. Predictions, with the good judgement project, people who laughed at me when I made them etc). Because I am prepared to consider all sides of an issue? Because I am willing to investigate areas that others dare not tread (even given the weight of declassified evidence and ex officers and men selling their services commercially) Why GrahamO? Why?
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes, i think global war is possible and with no Kennedy in sight in any country, any escalation will end up coming to blows...

..the cause will almost certainly be the ME, although the catalyst will continue to be driven by the vacant left*, and, due to the insincerity of the general public, any PM would be dammed if they got involved and dammed if they didn't (although that is generally the preserve of a tory leader)...

My predictions:

#1. loads more virtue signalling
#2. loads more disingenuous and/or intellectually dishonest reporting
#3. loads more malcolm muggeridgeing
#4. a few people continuing to get stupifyingly rich as a result of #1-3 above...


In answer to your q's, Sloggers:
1. Europe will be much more eastern orientated than it is today?

Of course, that was the intention of opening the doors (or one of the main intentions) of the EU...

2. China will be increasingly leading while America is declining in influence in global affairs?

whilst the US has taken over the english (and other former colonial powers) mantle of self flagellation, then yes, this would still have happened but US stupidity is hastening this process

3. Western Europe will be much less relevant to global affairs than it is today?

yes, and rightly so...we should apparently be ashamed etc...

4. During this period the risk of a full global war is higher than it is today?

civilisation (definition open to interpretation) has probably been off kilter for the last 15k or so years, without learning rom the process, and so this is hardly surprising
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Whisk




Joined: 09 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
1. Europe will be much more eastern orientated than it is today?

Of course, that was the intention of opening the doors (or one of the main intentions) of the EU...



Russia has historically seen the western former-Soviet states and the former-Warsaw Pact countries as a security buffer zone to protect its' western approach from the rest of Europe. The eastern European countries' desire to join NATO was driven out of a desire for a big brother to protect them from Russia.

Their desire to join the EU was motivated by economic factors, such as setting themselves up as cheap manufacturing and service centre locations for EU companies and sending their people off to work in western Europe so that they can send cash home to buoy their economies.

I can't see that too many eastern European countries are going to be in a hurry to cozy up to Russia again. If it wasn't for the fact that so much of Europe is dependent on Russian gas to heat their homes, I think they would be taking a much harder line with Russia.
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Gus




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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GrahamO wrote:
Please see a Doctor soon.


I'm flashing by with not enough time to read this thread... but this was worth the visit.
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explorerJC




Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus wrote:
GrahamO wrote:
Please see a Doctor soon.


I'm flashing by with not enough time to read this thread... but this was worth the visit.


i think he is out at the supermarket stocking up his nuclear shelter...
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
Gus wrote:
GrahamO wrote:
Please see a Doctor soon.


I'm flashing by with not enough time to read this thread... but this was worth the visit.


i think he is out at the supermarket stocking up his nuclear shelter...
who GrahamO or me?

I have no need for a nuclear shelter, when my time comes my time comes. Though I do worry about the future, preferring our world to live in light and not darkness.
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I realise that not many people have the chance, opportunity or desire, to spend tens of thousands of hours over a lifetime thinking hard about our world as a whole, you know people as Earthlings. But I have and do.

Life has kicked me in the nuts so many times, that either I am a dismal failure (which in some ways of looking I am) or life has given me what I need to gain the experiences I needed to enable me to do this and other stuff. I mean I can honestly say that I have not only answered life's supposedly unanswerable eternal questions, but I have moved past them. That, being married for a quarter of a century and bringing up two kids who are doing ok in work and at university, isn't to be sniffed at.

Rather than our world continue to meander its way back into the depths of darkness, I would rather ma'at returned. So I do what little I can. As do many other people.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
I

Rather than our world continue to meander its way back into the depths of darkness, I would rather ma'at returned. So I do what little I can. As do many other people.


why would ma'at be of benefit now?
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
I

Rather than our world continue to meander its way back into the depths of darkness, I would rather ma'at returned. So I do what little I can. As do many other people.


why would ma'at be of benefit now?
to help balance the forces!

You walked into that one Ejc. Wink
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
I

Rather than our world continue to meander its way back into the depths of darkness, I would rather ma'at returned. So I do what little I can. As do many other people.


why would ma'at be of benefit now?
to help balance the forces!

You walked into that one Ejc. Wink


knowing less would balance forces? I am perplexed...
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SloggingScotsman




Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2217

PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
explorerJC wrote:
SloggingScotsman wrote:
I

Rather than our world continue to meander its way back into the depths of darkness, I would rather ma'at returned. So I do what little I can. As do many other people.


why would ma'at be of benefit now?
to help balance the forces!

You walked into that one Ejc. Wink


knowing less would balance forces? I am perplexed...
me too!
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at Europe & Russia. The EU is not an organisation capable (or meant to) be a bulwark against Russian ambition, that's NATO's job. But in both cases, there are now so many members, and a lack of 'togetherness' that this could prove the Achilles Heel, opening the door to more opportunism by Russia. If Putin spots a lack of cohesion - he will move on it, little by little.

There are still a lot of things to be clarified now Trump is in power. Periods of uncertainty can be exploited; but we shall see. Energy security remains as important as ever.
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explorerJC




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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Looking at Europe & Russia. The EU is not an organisation capable (or meant to) be a bulwark against Russian ambition, that's NATO's job. But in both cases, there are now so many members, and a lack of 'togetherness' that this could prove the Achilles Heel, opening the door to more opportunism by Russia. If Putin spots a lack of cohesion - he will move on it, little by little.

There are still a lot of things to be clarified now Trump is in power. Periods of uncertainty can be exploited; but we shall see. Energy security remains as important as ever.


it is NATOs job, but the EU has/had designs on creating its own force to be europe's representative for defence

we've had years facing energy security issues and, rather than try to resolve them or at least set a plan into motion, it has been profitable to the ruling classes to maintain the status quo...
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