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Alistair Brownlee's road to the IM70.3 World Champs
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Mungo




Joined: 29 Sep 2016
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Location: Preston

PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Didnt Gethin Butler set a 1:57 for this back in the day?

Alistair was always going to be top 10 against guys that hold down jobs and families, top 5 on a hilly course as his power to weight and climbing ability is obviously high.

Personally I'm surprised he made the podium, if there was one, not sure he has the horse power or position to even get near the 1:35 crazy fast times set by Bottrill, Hutch, Wilko etc but he doesnt have too.

Aside from Gomez, the obvious threats are the exsisting top 70.3 hot shots. Didnt Lionel Sanders average 323 watts in breaking the IM record at Arizona?!? He can run abit too, he would need a buffer on Alistair if 10k times are anything to go by, not sure how much. Outside of Mo Farah and the 10k Olympians I cant think of a worse guy to have chasing you down on the run
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JeffB




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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:

Looking at AB's position on page 1, he could just drop his head and his CdA would be way lower.


I thought that as well, but also wasn't sure if his helmet was the best choice, but a couple of stills don't help much, especially when he was looking down on a couple. I don't think 320W for a couple of hours will be far beyond him, depends on how far into the red it takes him. Personally I think he'll crush it.

I'm sure his power to weight helped on the climbs, but Bideau won't be that heavy, but does appear to have a bit more muscle bulk.

Pretty sure Graves has been around 1:40 maybe under on some of the local 50's, but the A19 is a drag strip on a good day, especially for a 50.

Jeff
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r0bh




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AB is on the start list for Ironman 70.3 St George on 6th May
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Tin Pot




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

r0bh wrote:
AB is on the start list for Ironman 70.3 St George on 6th May


Cool
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Whisk




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tin Pot wrote:
r0bh wrote:
AB is on the start list for Ironman 70.3 St George on 6th May


Cool


That'll be a good course for AB - a very cold swim, followed by a reasonably lumpy bike and a very hilly run. The only thing that might get to him is the heat on the run, but unlike the IM that they used to run there they should be finished before it gets too hot.
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TRO Saracen




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting to see which other MPRO's will be there to benchmark. Yes, a good race for AB (although Wimbleball when it had a pro field would have been even more suited).

I wonder if he plans a few 70.3's to get familiar or will do just enough to Q (I assume its points like Kona, and a win would be enough, not entirely sure what the 70.3 Q process is for pros).
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Whisk




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Interesting to see which other MPRO's will be there to benchmark. Yes, a good race for AB (although Wimbleball when it had a pro field would have been even more suited).

I wonder if he plans a few 70.3's to get familiar or will do just enough to Q (I assume its points like Kona, and a win would be enough, not entirely sure what the 70.3 Q process is for pros).


St George is the North American championships, so the field should be pretty strong. As a continental championship, I think the prize money and qualifying points are higher than usual, so that might be part of his motivation for racing there.
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TRO Saracen




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seen the start list, the name Kienle leaps out Smile
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stenard




Joined: 04 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TRO Saracen wrote:
Seen the start list, the name Kienle leaps out Smile

Yep, and Raelert is obviously a top 5 finisher at the 70.3 world champs in 2015.

Given Gomez finished third in that 2015 race, behind only Jan and Seb, it really does say to me that AB could cause a bit of a shock, potentially straight away.
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Brownlee comes out-of-the-gate swinging, there aren't too many of the top LD guys who'll challenge him over 70.3 (this is the distance where they meet on neutral ground imho). Frodeno, Sanders & Kienle are the only names that spring immediately to mind; the latter two coming from behind after the swim.
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TRO Saracen




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gomez has only really done 70.3's as a sort of extra to racing a full ITU season and as noted he had a 1st and 3rd at IM 70.3 World Champ level. Fairly sure he was ill when 3rd or something, and I think these 70.3 WC races were just after the ITU Grand Final.

Brownlee, however, looks to be committing fully to 70.3 so assuming he's fit and can deal with heat/nutrition should be even better placed than Gomez.

There is every chance that Gomez, Kienle, Frodeno and Brownlee will line up in Chattanooga. Get to your theatres for that one....
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Jorgan




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't forget Sanders has learned to swim now, I think he went 25:** in Oceanside. But if Brownlee is focusing on 70.3, he'll be hard to beat
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stenard




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jorgan wrote:
Don't forget Sanders has learned to swim now, I think he went 25:** in Oceanside. But if Brownlee is focusing on 70.3, he'll be hard to beat

Yeah, he did 25:20. Still 2:25 down on Jan, but way better than what he has historically delivered. Yes Jan punctured, but apparently Sanders had already caught him up inside 15 miles (from what I remember of TRS Radio podcast).

I recall on the Oxygen Addict podcast that Sanders puts all his swim gains down to swimming in the morning. He said he'd changed nothing else, but he said the extra "feel" for the water from swimming fresh every day meant he made huge leaps in his times.
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Pedro Peru




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stenard wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
Don't forget Sanders has learned to swim now, I think he went 25:** in Oceanside. But if Brownlee is focusing on 70.3, he'll be hard to beat

Yeah, he did 25:20. Still 2:25 down on Jan, but way better than what he has historically delivered. Yes Jan punctured, but apparently Sanders had already caught him up inside 15 miles (from what I remember of TRS Radio podcast).

I recall on the Oxygen Addict podcast that Sanders puts all his swim gains down to swimming in the morning. He said he'd changed nothing else, but he said the extra "feel" for the water from swimming fresh every day meant he made huge leaps in his times.

I thought he said he was now training with a swim group?

Anyway, looking at the pro start list I think Jackson Laundry will clean up.

I'll get my coat
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stenard




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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pedro Peru wrote:
stenard wrote:
Jorgan wrote:
Don't forget Sanders has learned to swim now, I think he went 25:** in Oceanside. But if Brownlee is focusing on 70.3, he'll be hard to beat

Yeah, he did 25:20. Still 2:25 down on Jan, but way better than what he has historically delivered. Yes Jan punctured, but apparently Sanders had already caught him up inside 15 miles (from what I remember of TRS Radio podcast).

I recall on the Oxygen Addict podcast that Sanders puts all his swim gains down to swimming in the morning. He said he'd changed nothing else, but he said the extra "feel" for the water from swimming fresh every day meant he made huge leaps in his times.

I thought he said he was now training with a swim group?

Anyway, looking at the pro start list I think Jackson Laundry will clean up.

I'll get my coat

Maybe. I was listening on a long run, so maybe I zoned out. The main bit I remember was him talking about morning swimming, being fresh, and the additional feel. But maybe he has joined a different group too.
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